Ipek Ozkardeskaya
Swissquote Bank Ltd
Yesterday saw the worst selloff since pandemic. Equities tumbled, US dollar tanked, treasury yields melted, and crude oil dived.
The tariff chaos will likely help the euro end the week above the 1.10 mark and sterling above 1.30 against the US dollar. And gains could be sustainable as nations look willing to retaliate.
More interestingly, parallels with pandemic-era supply chain disruptions become apparent as we try to analyse the potential impact of tariffs on world economy and central bank responses. Opinions for Europe are dovish but the Fed expectations diverge.
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
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EUR/USD trims losses and approaches 1.1380
The US Dollar now succumbs to the re-emergence of the selling pressure and allows EUR/USD to recoup part of the ground lost and approach to the 1.1380 zone on Thursday. Earlier on Thursday, the ECB matched estimates and lowered its rates by 25 bps.
GBP/USD extends the daily recovery, looks at 1.3300
The upside impulse in the British pound remains everything but abated and now propels GBP/USD to the upper end of the range, shifting its attention to recent yearly peaks near 1.3300 the figure.
Gold breaks below $3,300, daily troughs
Further improvement in the sentiment surrounding the risk-associated universe put Gold prices to the test on Thursday. Indeed, the troy ounce of the precious metal faces increasing downside pressure and breaches the key $3,300 mark to hit new daily lows.
Crypto market cap fell more than 18% in Q1, wiping out $633.5 billion after Trump’s inauguration top
CoinGecko’s Q1 Crypto Industry Report highlights that the total crypto market capitalization fell by 18.6% in the first quarter, wiping out $633.5 billion after topping on January 18, just a couple of days ahead of US President Donald Trump’s inauguration.
Future-proofing portfolios: A playbook for tariff and recession risks
It does seem like we will be talking tariffs for a while. And if tariffs stay — in some shape or form — even after negotiations, we’ll likely be talking about recession too. Higher input costs, persistent inflation, and tighter monetary policy are already weighing on global growth.
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