The state of agriculture

Summary

Tariffs, rate cuts and farm bill incoming

The gradual unwinding of pandemic-era distortions has brought both benefits and challenges to farmers and ranchers. Input prices have clawed back from recent highs, resulting in lower costs for regular expenses like feed and fuel. Yet, a corresponding drop in selling prices has put farm incomes under pressure. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts a drop in net cash farm income this year, driven by lower prices for food commodities. Price declines have been especially acute for corn and soybeans, two staples of the Midwest agriculture sector. Ongoing challenges in hiring, uncertainty about the future of agricultural exports and recent hurricanes in the southeastern United States are other headwinds for farmers.

Looking ahead, perceptions appear to be brightening as farmers expect better income and a more favorable environment for capital expenditures in 2025. Next year likely will usher in easier monetary policy, and Federal Reserve rate cuts are likely to boost investment and lower financing costs for the hard-hit agricultural sector. New political leadership may also present its own set of challenges and opportunities to the farm sector. A new Congress will likely bring with it the passage of a new farm bill, containing federal funding to support the nation’s farmers and ranchers. At the same time, global appetite for U.S. agricultural products may lessen if the dollar appreciates against other currencies like we currently expect. The increased likelihood of higher tariffs on U.S. imports under the Trump Administration may result in retaliatory tariffs from our trading partners, putting agricultural exports at risk. State economies that rely more heavily on agriculture may be disproportionately affected, including the Dakotas, Nebraska and Iowa.

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