Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Election day on November 5 is fast approaching, and the presidential race remains highly competitive. Following the first presidential debate, Harris gained a slight edge in many swing states, but recent polling data shows candidates essentially tied.
Trump has expanded his advantage in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Harris remains in the lead in Michigan despite the worsening situation in Middle East, even if US stance on the war in Gaza was a key issue in the local Democratic primaries. In Pennsylvania, the race remains very close, with the two candidates tied. In the 2020 election, Trump only won North Carolina, while Biden secured the rest of these key battleground states.
Polls suggest that voters generally perceive Trump as better suited to handle issues like the economy and immigration. Conversely, voters have more faith in Harris when it comes to issues such as preserving democracy and abortion. In most swing states, the economy remains the number one issue. For instance, 30% voters in Arizona and 49% in North Carolina see this as their top concern and feel their economic situation has deteriorated over the past years, reinforcing Trump’s position in these historically Republican-leaning states. On the other hand, abortion also is considered one of the most prominent issues in swing states, indicating that the battlegrounds are far from settled.
While 2020 Trump voters have largely remained loyal to Trump, Biden’s 2020 voters are less convinced of Harris. According to data from AtlasIntel, 89% of Biden’s 2020 voters are expected to support Harris in Pennsylvania, compared to 98.3% for Trump’s 2020 voters (p. 3). Perhaps surprisingly, her support especially among female voters appears to fall short of Biden’s in 2020, even if generally Harris has outperformed Biden’s final 2024 polling results from June-July among females.
Another reason likely attributed to the uncertainty among former Biden voters could be the Democrats’ declining support among young men. Reportedly, many of these feel disconnected with the party due to its stance on issues like worsening educational outcomes, economic challenges and mental health issues.
That said, Harris remains popular with Gen Z, leading Trump by 30 points among young women and 4 points among young men, according to an NBC poll. Harris also remains most popular among black, non-Hispanic voters in most of the swing states, with 92% of these voters supporting Biden in 2020. Black Americans are projected to account for 14% of eligible voters this year per Pew Research Center.
Finally, we had the vice-presidential debate between Republican J.D. Vance and Democrat Tim Walz. Vance focused on Biden-Harris immigration failures, while Walz emphasized middle-class support. In general, the debate remained cordial, with watchers seeing both VP candidates more favourably after the debate (according to CBS). The polite tone of the discussion and the lack of name-calling could have benefitted Vance, who Democrats have previously tried to label as ‘weird’. That said, watchers saw the debate essentially as a draw, with 42% favouring Vance, 41% favouring Walz, and 17% called it a tie. Prediction markets saw little change, still signalling a very close race.
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