Commodity prices have made an explosive start to 2024 – with a long-list of Metals, Energies and Agricultural markets notching up impressive double-digit gains within the first month of this year already.
So far this month, we have seen Cocoa prices soar to their highest level in 46-years to hit a new all-time record high. Robusta Coffee prices climbed to their highest level in 16-years, while Sugar prices have rallied to a decade high – racking up a stunning gain of over 450% from their 2020 low.
Elsewhere in the Energy markets, Crude Oil prices have been on an absolute tear – with both Brent and WTI Crude Oil benchmark’s rising over $10 a barrel or 12% this month – to hit their highest price point seen this year.
But there’s one Commodity that has continued to set new back to back record highs.
And that’s Uranium.
Uranium's bull market is off to a red-hot start in 2024 with spot prices rocketing above $106 per pound to hit their highest level in 17 years. That's more than a 100% increase from their 2023 low. It is also a whopping gain of over 350% from their 2020 low.
And this could just the beginning!
Cocoa, Sugar, Coffee, Crude Oil and Uranium were among the best-performing asset classes in 2023 and that trend is set to continue throughout 2024.
Right now, the global Commodity markets are currently experiencing an unprecedented phenomenon known as a “Super-Squeeze”.
This phenomenon results from an ever-growing number of macroeconomics factors including supply disruptions, escalating geopolitical tensions, the climate change crisis and energy transition.
Rising geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation have contributed to a strain on Commodity markets. Disruptions from events like the Israel-Hamas conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war have hampered global trade, while the consequences of climate change have disrupted supply chains. Additionally, the lack of investment in critical metals, minerals and energy transition materials has further exacerbated the situation.
The longer these macro and geopolitical events persist, the tighter the Commodities markets will become – leading to a greater squeeze in prices.
According Goldman Sachs, the macroeconomic backdrop for Commodities in 2024 is looking more bullish than ever before – ultimately indicating that we could be on the verge of another blockbuster year.
Whichever way you look at it, one thing is clear. It won't take much for Commodity prices to move significantly higher in this current economic environment and breach new highs in the coming weeks and months ahead.
Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:
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GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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