Stock markets got the week off to a strong start and that optimism is carrying through to the inflation report release, it would appear.
European indices are trading around half a percentage point higher early in the day and US futures indicate a slightly positive open as well. Of course, all of that will probably change between now and the opening bell, with the inflation data being released an hour before.
As was the case yesterday, I'm quite surprised at the level of optimism we're seeing in the run-up to the report. The inflation data has a lot of heavy lifting to do in order to alleviate clear concerns over the tightness of the labour market. The January report has heaped more pressure on the CPI to deliver and forecasts are not that hopeful. Time will tell whether investors have been a little bit complacent on this one.
A concerning wage number for the BoE
UK watchers may be feeling a little less optimistic this morning after labour market figures showed wages excluding bonuses rising once more in December. They were expected to stay flat at 6.5% but instead jumped to 6.7%, a level still far below headline inflation and not consistent with it falling back to target any time soon.
Including bonuses, the number was a slightly more modest 5.9% which is still too high but at least a deceleration from the month before. Following the release, UK yields were given a nudge higher, lifting the pound in the process alongside expectations on the terminal rate which is now seen hitting 4.5% and probably not falling this year.
Paring gains
Oil prices are falling again on Tuesday after initially recouping losses at the start of the week. While traders remain very optimistic about China and to a lesser extent, the resilience of the global economy this year, the fact remains that it won't be a smooth process, and that has already been evident in the economic data in the opening weeks of 2023.
It will be interesting to see how oil prices respond to today's US inflation data as interest rates are now at a point where every 25 basis points matter and could be the difference between a soft landing and a recession. Equity markets don't appear to be fully capturing that at the moment but oil appears to reflect that much more.
Awaiting the inflation release
Gold remains choppy in the lead-up to the inflation report. It was starting to drift lower again late last week but that appears to have slowed, probably with an eye on today's release. A strong inflation reading could weigh heavily on the yellow metal and intensify the second wave of the correction.
While it has seen some support around $1,850 this past couple of sessions, the interesting levels remain $1,820-$1,830 and $1,780-$1,800. Another weak inflation print could draw an abrupt end to the correction and see gold rally once more, at which point $1,890-$1,900 may provide the initial test.
All hangs on CPI
Bitcoin has also consolidated in the run-up to today's inflation number. This ultimately becomes a case of whether markets go into risk-on or risk-off mode following the release. It has entered into a corrective move but that's unlikely to continue if today's inflation print falls short of expectations again.
This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities.
Opinions are the authors — not necessarily OANDA’s, its officers or directors. OANDA’s Terms of Use and Privacy Policy apply. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD struggles near multi-month low; looks to US CPI for fresh impetus
AUD/USD languishes near a multi-month low during the Asian session on Wednesday and seems vulnerable amid a bullish USD. Expectations that inflationary import tariffs from US President-elect Donald Trump will push up prices and limit the scope for the Fed to cut rates remain supportive of elevated US bond yields.
USD/JPY sits near its highest level since July, close to 155.00 as traders await US CPI
USD/JPY stands firm near its highest level since July 30 amid speculations that a fragile minority government in Japan will make it difficult for the BoJ to tighten its monetary policy further. Moreover, fears that US President-elect Donald Trump might again hit Japan with protectionist trade measures continue to undermine the JPY.
Gold price oscillates around $2,600, just above a nearly two-month low ahead of US inflation
Gold price consolidates its recent heavy losses to the lowest level since September 20 as bears opt to pause for a breather ahead of the crucial US CPI report, which will influence Fed rate-cut expectations and provide a fresh impetus.
Ripple could rally 50% following renewed investor interest
Ripple's XRP rallied nearly 20% on Tuesday, defying the correction seen in Bitcoin and Ethereum as investors seem to be flocking toward the remittance-based token. XRP could rally nearly 50% if it sustains a firm close above the neckline resistance of an inverted head and shoulders pattern.
Five fundamentals: Fallout from the US election, inflation, and a timely speech from Powell stand out Premium
What a week – the US election lived up to their hype, at least when it comes to market volatility. There is no time to rest, with politics, geopolitics, and economic data promising more volatility ahead.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.