The markets are waiting for the stupid CPI

• Dollar waffles on Monday, no one wants to make a bet either way.

• Gold & Silver have good no interference days.

Good Day... And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, I didn't hear the words that I was hoping to hear yesterday... After a fuster ((&^% of testing, and waiting, I was told that the operation was successful, but... They preferred that I remain on the blood thinners for 3 more months... UGH! It ended up a 5-hour affair at the hospital... For a simple endoscope test... It took 4 different nurses to find a vein that they could put an IV needle in... They missed 5 times! OUCH! So, I get to continue to have bleeding moments in my jaw that come whenever they feel like it, for 3 more months, aren't I the lucky one? Harold Melvin and the Blue Notes greet me this morning with their great song: If You Don't Know Me By Now.

Well, Monday saw the dollar get bought a bit, with the BBDXY gaining 1 index point, and the euro remaining above 1.09... Gold found a bid and turned around that early morning loss into a $42 gain on the day, while Silver continued to add to its early morning gains and end the day up 53-cents... Gold closed at $2,472.90 and Silver Closed at $27.95... Both were unaffected by short trading in the metals... So, apparently the short paper traders were not motivated to go all hog heaven on the metals yesterday.

I told you yesterday about the Silver situation, and how I believed that this came to fruition, that a short Silver Squeeze would take place and that could wipe out the short Silver paper traders... Fingers crossed on that, eh? 

The price of Oil bumped higher by $2 yesterday, and at one point in the day touched $89, but settled in at the close trading with a $79 handle. Apparently, the Oil boys woke up and realized that the Middle East could be up in flames, and they panicked and marked up the price of Oil.

And the 10-year's yield saw some buying yesterday, and the yield dropped to a 3.90%.

In the overnight markets last night... The dollar did some more waffling, and we start today with the BBDXY at the same level as yesterday, 1,246... Traders are waiting for tomorrow's STUPID CPI to print before making any huge bets... Gold is down to star the day today -$6, and Silver is down 24-cents... Both of those levels can easily be turned around... I'm just saying... But if not, you've got an opportunity to by at a cheaper level this morning! I don't expect too much movement one way or the other today, and the markets and media are smitten with the STUPID CPI... So, we have that going for us... I think.

Well, yesterday, I told you about how we'll get quite a few real economic reports this week, and they begin today with July's PPI (wholesale inflation) which is expected to come in with a .2% gain VS June... As you probably already know, PPI feeds into The STUPID CPI... So, a .2% gain isn't going to set off fireworks... Tomorrow, the media and markets get their preferred inflation calculation the STUPID CPI... here's where the markets are not singing from the same song sheet, as some believe that July CPI will be weaker, while I'm pinning my colors on the flag of those that believe the STUPID CPI will come in above expectations, which are for a .2% gain.

I don't know about you, but I sure don't see prices coming down, do you? But, the thing we have to take into consideration is that this is the Gov't's accounting firm the BLS, and it is an election year... I'll say no more, other than the BLS is known to allow the wind in its sails to shift easily... I'm just saying.

I'm afraid that the BLS will get a memo from the White House that this month's CPI print will be watched very closely, and could be a real market mover if it reveals one thing over the other... I just don't think that we'll get a real pulse of inflation from this report, either way... And as always, I'll be checking with www.shadowstats.com to see what John Williams has CPI doing... I'll let you know tomorrow.

In some very scary news reported on Zerohedge.com, it appears that the share of consumers with a delinquent credit card has increased rapidly since 2021 and is now higher than in 2019. While consumers with delinquencies clearly show signs of struggling, news reports have taken the rising delinquency rate as a sign that financial distress is becoming more widespread, suggesting underlying weakness in the U.S. economy....  Uh-Oh!

Or58, could it be the mass issuance of credit cards by the banks, that are sexy in their terms and agreements, and the end user never reads them until its too late? I'm sure that this scenario is part of the problem, but the overall weakness in the economy and the cost of things is more to blame.

And Zerohedge.com also is reporting that July was another catastrophic month for U.S. fiscal viability: that's because U.S. tax revenue of $330.4BN (down sharply from the $466.3BN in June, if higher than the $276.2BN a year ago), was far below the $573.1BN in government outlays (which was materially above the $537.2BN in June and also the $496.9BN last July)...resulting in a monthly deficit of $243.7BN, the second largest July budget deficit on record, surpassed only by the record post-covid print in July 2021.

There are two more months in the U.S.'s fiscal year, and so far we've booked $1.517 Trillion... So, it appears that we'll have a $2 Trillion deficit this year... In a year that the U.S. is not fighting a war (outright, yes we have our proxy war in Ukraine), and no plandemic to fight, or other extraordinary spending item that bumps up your deficit spending... No, this deficit spending is all on gadgets, widgets, people that can't work, and then the Big Elephant in the room is Medicare... Remember when I used to point out to you that for the next 17 years, that 10,000 Baby Boomers would retire, and begin drawing on Medicare? 

I told you then that someone with some gray matter needed to come up with a different way that all the "entitlements" (I hate that word!) were paid out... Remember my plan? I suggested that the ages were all screwed up had all the ages worked out as to what they got are could expect to get when they retired... The plan was genius, if you ask me! Just another time that Chuck was way ahead of the Gov't, markets, etc. with his thoughts on deficit spending... Like when I suggested that we close all the military bases around the world in countries that don't like us there anyway, and bring the soldiers home to defend our border... Think of the savings to the Country with all those bases closed... And I don't mean that we leave them like we did Afghanistan... That was shameful... 

I read yesterday that the U.S. is beefing up its presence in the Middle East... And that's another thing I didn't take into consideration yesterday, when I listed the things that should boost Gold's price going forward, and that is Geopolitical problems... They're everywhere we look, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, South China Sea, and much like the Olympic rings that don't consider Antartica a continent, Antartica seems to be the only peaceful place on earth! 

Gold has always been a go-to for investors when these Geopolitical problems arise... So, these days it shouldn't be any different.... Got Gold?

Another thing that will help the price of Gold rise further, is the upcoming rate cut by the Fed Heads... Yesterday, Reuters reported that; "If the US Federal Reserve does not start cutting interest rates relatively soon, US consumers could become dispirited, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said." 

Chuck again... Why would that be, you may be asking? Well could it be that the Feds have, in most of our lifetimes, going back to Big Al Greenspan, been there to bail out the stock market, and the economy with easy money, an credit, and that's the only thing most of can think to do to stem this recession, and stock sell-off... Well GROW UP We, as a country don't need no stinkin' rate cut, what we need is a good old fashioned recession to wipe out the excesses and start over again... I know that sounds harsh, but C'mon... Isn't that they way it used to be done, before Big Al thought he was a rock star, and that the Fed Heads knew better? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard has the aforementioned PPI for July this morning... Not a market moving data print, unless there's a blowout number printed, and I'm sure the Gov't will have none of that! Tomorrow is the day the markets and media are all lathered up about... The STUPID CPI for July... Which Chuck said he believes that the number would be higher than the .2% the so-called experts are forecasting for the print... I went into a long dissertation yesterday on The STUPID CPI, so you'll have to go back in time, and read it if you forgot it already...

To recap... The dollar waffled most of the trading day yesterday, but in the end gained 1 index point in the BBDXY, while the euro remained above 1.09... Gold had a great day yesterday, and turned around its early morning loss, big time! Silver also had a good day... And both metals didn't seem to be bothered by any short paper trading that I'm certain of... I'm not Imprint Certain, but Certain! HA! The U.S. Deficit Spending continues to rack up large number each month, and it now appears that we'll have a $2 Trillion Deficit this year... Shameful...  And the dollar's position as the reserve currency took another hit with the percentage of dollar use around the world falling to 58% last year, BS 72% just two years ago... 

Here's your snippet: "The decline of the U.S. dollar (USD) as the world’s reserve currency has been a popular topic of conversation for years – especially in the wake of the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007-2008 – and while talks of its impending demise may be overblown, data provided by the Atlantic Council shows that the world is indeed utilizing the USD significantly less than at the turn of the century.

According to the Atlantic Council’s Dollar Dominance Monitor, the share of the USD in global reserves stood at 58% in 2024, a 14% decline from 2002 when it accounted for 72% of global reserves.

“The US dollar has served as the world’s leading reserve currency since World War II,” the report said. “Today, the dollar represents 58 percent of the value of foreign reserve holdings worldwide. The euro, the second-most-used currency, comprises only 20 percent of foreign reserve holdings.”

“But in recent years, and especially since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Group of Seven (G7)’s subsequent escalation in the use of financial sanctions, some countries have been signaling their intention to diversify away from dollars,” researchers at the Atlantic Council said.

The pace of de-dollarization has picked up in recent years, and the researchers pointed to one development that has hastened this trend: the growth of BRICS."

Chuck again... I just want to say neener, neener, neener, I told you so, I told you so, I told you so! To all that said I was barking up the wrong tree, years ago, when I pointed out that the BRICS would cause the dollar problems in the future... And it hasn't taken the BRICS that long... For it was 2009, when they were founded, and I wrote about them...  Sure, to some people 2009 sounds like a long time ago, but in reality, it's not.

Market Prices 8/13/2024: American Style: A$.6596, kiwi .6043, C$ .7280, euro 1.0932, sterling 1.2791, Swiss $1.1532, European Style: rand 18.1703, krone 10.7930, SEK 10.5257, forint 360.00, zloty 3.9235, koruna 23.0526, RUB 91.49, yen 147.43, sing 1.3223, HKD 7.892, INR 83.97, China 7.1639, peso 18.95, BRL 5.4919, BBDXY 1,246.94, Dollar Index 103.14, Oil $79.49, 10-year 3.90%, Silver $27.77, Platinum $933.00, Palladium $924.00, Copper $4.07, and Gold... $2,466.20.

That's it for today... Playing to the level of their competition has always been a problem for my beloved Cardinals, and last night was no different, as they lost to the Reds 6-1... UGH! I go later today to get an Iron infusion; this is to help me because I'm so weak still... And my blood was in need of iron! I tell ya, the only time I get out and about these days is when I go to the doctor! I guess it's a good thing I have 5 doctors! And then it's not such a good thing either! I came home yesterday from the hospital, ate lunch and fell asleep the rest of the day, and early evening... I was still able to go to sleep later last night... Well, Little Evie, and brother Braden came to see me at the hospital yesterday... Braden is very interested in all at goes on in a hospital, while Little Evie is in her own world... Weezer takes us to the finish line today with their song: Isalnds In the Sun.... I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and will continue to Be Good To Yourself!