Ipek Ozkardeskaya
Swissquote Bank Ltd
On Friday, the US announced a meagre 12K nonfarm job additions last month, the manufacturing and private nonfarm payrolls printed negative numbers. But the bright spot was that unemployment remained steady at 4.1% - suggesting that the NFP number probably took a one-off hit, and the wages continued to grow by 4% on a yearly basis. The market is now convinced that the Fed will announce another 25bp cut when it meets this week. That announcement is due Thursday, as before that we have the US election – on Tuesday.
Even though the prediction markets have been in favour of a Trump victory, the CNN poll this morning prints a 48% chance for a Harris win, versus 47% assessed to a Trump victory. The worst possible outcome for the market would be a too close race and a contested outcome.
In the short run, a Harris victory could bring relief to treasury and international markets, while a Trump victory could resonate louder – and not necessarily in a good way – for the euro and the European markets, due to the tariff threat.
Elsewhere, oil kicked off the week better bid on weekend news that OPEC could delay the planned December increase to oil production by a month – or more – on the back of a persistent selloff in oil prices due to the unfavourable combination of weaker demand and strong output prospects.
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
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