The Dollar finally gets sold

• The Dollar finally gets sold.
• Gold rallies while Silver gets whacked.

Good Day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to one and all! I'm ready, and willing, and able to do some Tub Thumpin' today! I was dismissed from seeing a nurse each week yesterday... My PT guy was impressed at how I ran through the exercises he gave me without a break... And I spent 1 hour on the phone with MDAnderson setting up my account all over again... The bad news was that they couldn't see me until 12/19.... UGH! Oh, well, it is what it is... I'm just hoping that a surgeon that I saw on Monday this week, and is willing to cut some of the bulk of the tumor out of my mouth, can work me in soon... First, though, I have to get a new CT scan of my jaw... Los Bravos greet me this morning with their great 60's song: Black is Black.... 

Well, yesterday I told you that the BBDXY had only gained 2 index points so far this week.... And yesterday, those 2 index points were given back... So, here we are 4 days into the week, and the BBDXY was still sitting at 1,261 at the close yesterday.... It appears to me that a consolidation is taking place.... Yes, no traders want to take any positions ahead of the elections, but at the same time, the dollar hasn't moved...  I'm just saying, because.... I told you last week that the dollar was overbought... 

Gold gained $12 yesterday, but Silver was subjected to short paper trading that brought Silver down by 65-cents... Gold closed yesterday at $2,788.00, and Silver at $33.86... It does seem that the short paper traders have drawn a line in the sand at $34.50... Silver has reached that level a few times in recent trading, and each time, it gets taken to the woodshed.... That can't go on forever folks... So, back up the truck for the Silver dock now... I'm just saying....

The price of oil bumped higher two days in a row, and closed yesterday trading with a 569 handle... And yesterday i mentioned that it looked to me like the 10-year's yield was back to rising... And it followed through on that thought with the 10-year's yield closing at 4.30%... I read a report yesterday that had a bond trader calling for a 4.50% yield before election day, which is next week! That seems to quick for me, but then I'm an old bond trader that never saw volatility in bonds like we see these days...

In the overnight markets last night... Well, someone knows something that the rest of us don't because the dollar lost more ground overnight... The BBDXY is at 1,258 this morning, down 3 index points from yesterday. it could be a reaction to the dollar being overbought, but It had appeared to be something that was put off for another day, once the election was over... Whatever it is, the currencies love it.... The euro is driving toward 1.09 this morning, and the rest of the currencies all look like they can sit up in their sick beds... 

Gold is getting sold this morning in the early trading and is down $16, while Silver is getting whacked again and is down 45-cents to start our day today... I would say that the higher 10-year yield (4.30%) is having an affect on the metals, but it's not like this is a "new thing"... Gold has rallied in the face of higher yields this time, so it's not that... Must be short paper traders... Dirty b&$^(*^)s 

The price of Oil remained in the $69 handle overnight, and as i just said the 10-year's yield is 4.30% this morning... 

Well, I didn't answer the bell this morning, I was up a lot last night with bleeding in my mouth... I hadn't had any bleeding for over a week, and had forgotten about how nasty it is.... But I finally got it to stop about 3:30 this morning, and went back to sleep... Sorry for the tardiness of the letter today!

It IS HALLOWEEN today! Boo! Last year on Halloween, the weather had turned bitter cold and so i couldn't sit outside giving out candy to the little Trick-or-Treaters... This year will be different I think, according to the weatherman on TV! 

OK, enough of all that, Chuck, your dear readers didn't open up this letter to read about the weather for Halloween! 

Recall me telling you that the euro was in trouble, because of the European Central Bank's (ECB ) jawboning bout multiple rate cuts coming? And then this morning, I look, and the euro is on the rally horse... What gives? Well, as I've told you many times in the past, The euro is the offset currency to the dollar, and when the dollar gets sold, it matter not what's going on in the Eurozone, the euro will benefit from the dollar's weakness... 

I have Ed Steer for you this morning regarding Gold & Silver's performance yesterday, take it way Ed! "Gold closed at yet a new nominal high on Wednesday -- and would have closed even higher than Ait did, if it had been allowed to trade freely. However, it was allowed to close above the $2,800.00 mark by a hair in the December contract. It's also back into overbought territory by a bit once again. But despite that new high, the gold stocks closed down on the day.

One other surprising thing about yesterday's price action in gold and silver was the fact that although the former was up on the day -- and the latter closed down a hefty amount, the net volumes in both were not all overly heavy

However, silver and the other two white metals weren't even allowed a sniff of gold's glory, as those collusive commercial traders of whatever stripe were all over them like white on rice."

The U.S. Data Cupboard got some real economic data yesterday, and then it came back to yield more real economic data this morning... There's a lot here, so stay with me... First off the ADP Employment Report was a big surprise as it showed that 233,000 jobs were added in Rocktober... The experts were only expecting 133,000... Then came the first reading of 3rd QTR GDP, which was steady but weaker at 2.8%... I would say that we should look for downward revisions in the future here.... 

And then today's Data Cupboard has already printed last month's Personal Income and Spending... Personal Income was up .3%, while Spending was up .5%.... I just didn't see that coming, a strong spending month , but then it is an election year.... Then the Fed's fave inflation calc. PCE (personal Consumption Expenditures) printed for Roctober at 2.1%.... That's a lot of bull if you as me... And finally, the usual Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims also printed... And they were 216,000 last week... That's weaker than I expected since I've been reading about layoffs and business closings, etc. But, once again, it's an election year... 

To recap... The dollar traders finally broke out of their doldrums, and sold dollars a bit yesterday, and some more overnight... The overbought scenario seems to be playing out here... Gold reached another new all-time high yesterday, but is getting sold this morning... Silver continues to get whacked by the short paper traders on a daily basis... 

For What It's Worth.... I touched on this above... But this is a report on the GDP print and it can be found here: U.S. GDP Q3 2024: (cnbc.com)

Or, here's your snippet: "he U.S. economy posted another solid though slightly disappointing period of growth in the third quarter, propelled higher by strong consumer spending that has defied expectations for a slowdown.

Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced during the three-month period from July through September, increased at a 2.8% annualized rate, according to a Commerce Department report Wednesday that is adjusted for inflation and seasonality.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 3.1%. The economy accelerated at a 3% pace in the second quarter. Wednesday’s reading is the first of three the department will issue.

The report confirms that the U.S. expansion has continued despite elevated interest rates and long-standing worries that the burst of fiscal and monetary stimulus that carried the economy through the Covid crisis wouldn’t be enough to sustain growth.

However, resilient consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of all activity, has helped keep the economy moving, as has a relentless wave of government spending that pushed the budget deficit to more than $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024.

Another major factor the department cited for growth was federal government spending, which exploded higher by 9.7%, pushed by a 14.9% surge in defense outlays. Fiscal spending at the federal level contributed 0.6 percentage point to the GDP growth rate."

Chuck again... one has to suspect that the fact that the election is so close that this data was massaged... Like I said above, I will be looking for downward revisions with this data set in the future...  and I direct your attention to the last paragraph there where they talk about Gov't spending!

Market Prices 10/31/2024: American Style: A$ 6577, kiwi .5978, C$ .7191, euro 1.0880, sterling 1.2974, Swiss $1.1602, European Style: rand 17.6423, krone 10.9667, SEK 10.8823, forint 375.40, zloty 3.990, koruna 23.2727, RUB 97.08, yen 152.35, sing 1.3208, HKD 7.7734, INR 84.08, China 7.1157, peso 20.05, BRL 5.7650, BBDXY 1,258.88, Dollar Index 103.85, Oil $69.24, 10-year 4.30%, Silver $33.41, Platinum $1,007.00, Palladium $1,144.00 Copper $4.38, and Gold... $2,772.88

That's it for today and this week.... A Big Congratulations to the Dodgers who had a great comeback game VS the Yankees to win the World Series 4-1... Baseball is over for this year, UGH! My beloved Cardinals are going to sit on their hands this offseason, according to reports.... I'm so frustrated with the front office mgt of this team... My beloved Mizzou Tigers play BYE this week, so they can't lose! HA! Well, it's Halloween, Boo! I hope you have a Tub Thumpin' Thursday, and a Happy Halloween today.... R.E.M. Take us to the finish line today with their great song: Losing My Religion... I hope you will also Be Good To Yourself!