ING Global Economics Team
ING Economic and Financial Analysis
Additional sanctions hitting Iranian oil exports are pushing oil prices higher.
Energy – US tightens sanctions on Iranian Oil exports
Oil prices rallied yesterday with ICE Brent settling more than 1.7% higher on the day at US$72/bbl, the highest close this month. And this strength has continued in early morning trading in Asia.
The US further tightened the screws on Iranian oil exports, including sanctioning Chinese refiner, Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical Co., Ltd, for buying Iranian crude oil. The refinery’s CEO was sanctioned, too. The US Treasury Department also sanctioned an oil terminal in China for handling and storing Iranian oil, as well as a handful of tankers linked to a shadow fleet transporting Iranian oil. Increased enforcement of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports is an upside risk to the oil market. Iran exported roughly 1.4m b/d of crude oil in February and President Trump has vowed to drive these volumes even lower.
OPEC+ members issued a schedule for making oil output cuts to compensate for overproduction. The cuts will run until June 2026. These monthly cuts will range between 189k b/d and 435k b/d. Importantly, they more than offset the monthly supply increases set to start in April. However, while the group shares a plan for compensation cuts, it certainly doesn’t mean members will follow it. A handful of members have consistently produced above their target production levels.
US natural gas prices sold off heavily yesterday, with the front-month Henry Hub contract settling 6.4% lower. The downward pressure has continued this morning. This is after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US natural gas storage increased by 9 bcf over the last week, above the expected 5 bcf increase. However, total storage levels are still tight, standing at 1.71 tcf, down 26.8% year on year and 10% below the five-year average.
Agriculture – Global grain production estimates raised
In its first estimates for 2025/26, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts corn production to increase from 1,217mt in 2024/25 to 1,269mt in 2025/26. This reflects expectations for greater output from Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, and the US. As for consumption, the council thinks demand will increase to 1,263mt from 1,238mt. Corn ending stocks are forecast to rise from 274mt to 280mt in 2025/26. Similarly, global soybean production and consumption are estimated to rise to 427mt (+2.2% YoY) and 426mt (+4.2% YoY), respectively. This will see 2025/26 soybean ending stocks rising from 82mt to 83mt. As for wheat, the IGC expects output to increase from 799mt to 807mt in 2025/26 amid rising production from the EU and UK. However, ending stocks are still forecast to drop from 265mt in 2024/25 to 259mt in 2025/26.
Read the original analysis: The commodities feed: Sanctions push Oil higher
Content disclaimer: This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more here: https://think.ing.com/content-disclaimer/
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD remains offered and challenges 1.0800
The intense recovery in the US Dollar keeps the price action in the risk complex depressed, forcing EUR/USD to recede further and put the key support at 1.0800 to the test on Friday.
GBP/USD breaks below 1.2900 on stronger Dollar
Persistent buying pressure on the Greenback has pushed GBP/USD to multi-day lows below the 1.2900 level, as investors continue to digest the recent interest rate decisions from both the Fed and the BoE.
Gold meets support around the $3,000 mark
The combined impact of a stronger US Dollar, continued profit taking, and the effects of Quadruple Witching weighed on Gold, pulling its troy ounce price down to around the pivotal $3,000 level on Friday.
US SEC Crypto Task Force to host the first-ever roundtable on crypto asset regulation
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Crypto Task Force will host a series of roundtables to discuss key areas of interest in regulating crypto assets. The “Spring Sprint Toward Crypto Clarity” series’ first-ever roundtable begins on Friday.
Week ahead – Flash PMIs, US and UK inflation eyed as tariff war rumbles on
US PCE inflation up next, but will consumption data matter more? UK budget and CPI in focus after hawkish BoE decision. Euro turns to flash PMIs for bounce as rally runs out of steam. Inflation numbers out of Tokyo and Australia also on the agenda.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.