The Dollar remains supported; fresh rallies expected after corrective phase

EURUSD

The Euro holds overall negative tone and posted marginally lower low at 1.3177, levels last time seen one year ago, with near-term price action trading in consolidative mode, around 1.32 level. Oversold 4-hour and daily studies suggest more significant corrective action in the near-term, as hourly indicators are heading north. The pair attempts to fill Monday’s gap, the first step which will signal recovery under way, ahead of previous low at 1.3240 and 1.3266, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3410/1.3177 descend, break of which to open key near-term barrier and breakpoint at 1.3295, lower top of 22 Aug and psychological 1.33 resistance, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line. Break here is required to confirm near-term base and put bears on hold for stronger recovery. Otherwise, lower top formation and fresh weakness would keep larger bears intact for extension towards next targets at 1.3103, Sep 2013 higher low and 1.3022, Fibonacci 138.2% expansion of the wave from 1.3699.

Res: 1.3220; 1.3240; 1.3266; 1.3300
Sup: 1.3177; 1.3150; 1.3103; 1.3050




GBPUSD

Cable attempts to stabilize after bounce from fresh low at 1.6534 returned to near-term congestion tops and strong resistance at 1.66 zone. Slight improvement of hourly studies keeps fresh attempts higher in play, as 4-hour indicators are heading off oversold zone. However, more significant recovery requires break above 200SMA at 1.6680 and 18 Aug lower top at 1.6736, to offset larger bears. Otherwise, preferred scenario would be lower top formation and fresh weakness towards targets at 1.6500, round figure support and 1.6464, 24 Mar low.

Res: 1.6600; 1.6622; 1.6651; 1.6677
Sup: 1.6564; 1.6534; 1.6500; 1.6464




USDJPY

The pair maintains overall bullish tone, as fresh bulls cracked key 104.11, 04 Apr peak, the last obstacle on the way to 105.43, 02 Jan peak. Corrective action is under way, with pullback probing below initial 104 support, ahead of fresh attempt higher. Extended pullback to face supports art 103.50, 22 Aug low and 103.20, Fibonacci 38.2% of 101.49/104.26 upleg. Ideally, reversal should be contained here and should not extend below 103 zone, previous peaks and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 101.07/104.26 upleg, to keep bulls intact.

Res: 104.10; 104.26; 104.50; 104.83
Sup: 103.50; 103.20; 103.07; 102.70




AUDUSD

The pair trades in near-term corrective mode off fresh low at 0.9237, after pullback off 0.9342 retested 0.9237 support. Near-term tone is neutral and sideways trading is expected to continue, while 0.9342 top caps. Break here to signal double-bottom formation on 4-hour chart and stronger rally, which requires break above pivotal 0.9372, 06 Aug lower top, to confirm the scenario. Conversely, slide below 0.9270 higher low to weaken immediate structure and risk return to 0.9237 low.

Res: 0.9300; 0.9327; 0.9342; 0.9372
Sup: 0.9285; 0.9270; 0.9237; 0.9200