Tariffs are back – Just different this time

Instead of country tariffs, we‘re now in company-specific situations as the AAPL India threat shows. Still, the S&P 500 did slide mightily on the news, and for good reason – if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it‘s probably a duck. Uncertainty is back, even though it might not look like that – the hourly perspective that I featured in extensive Saturday‘s video with the below chart, is a support turned resistance.
 

Still, an important level predicted for clients – a bit above a key gap‘s upper border at 5,760s – had been reached, so which clues to look at determining S&P 500 moves‘ expectation for the days ahead. NVDA earnings midweek will bring their own utmost relevance, especially when relative performance of NVDA, semiconductors and NDX is compared (I‘m watching AVGO here too).

I‘m further looking at XLF, XLY and XLI signs together with defensives performance (XLP and XLV as opposed to XLRE thanks to rising yields not just in the US that I‘ve talked with respect to Japan earlier in the week – it‘s the overall debt situation and big beautiful bill in the months ahead that are spooking the markets, sending 10y back above 4.50% with push through mid 4.40s% rejected – that‘s not good, and little wonder that gold, silver and Bitcoin are trading the way they are as I talked in the weekend video)