Swiss Franc dips as Swiss GDP declines

The Swiss franc is down for a second straight trading day.  In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8980, up 0.38% on the day.

Switzerland’s GDP eases to 0.2%

The Swiss economy slowed to 0.2% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 0.4% in Q3 and in line with expectations.  This was the weakest expansion since Q2 2023.  Construction weakened in the fourth quarter but manufacturing and exports rebounded from the previous quarter.  Annualized, GDP rose 1.5%, down from 1.9% in Q3, the softest expansion in three quarters.

The weak GDP data supports the case for the Swiss National Bank to lower interest rates.  The central bank is in the midst of an easing cycle and showed its aggressive side in December when it chopped rates by 50 basis points, bringing the cash rate to 0.50%.

The SNB only meets on a quarterly basis, magnifying the importance of each meeting.  The next meeting is on March 20 and the markets have priced in a 25-bps cut at close to 100%.  There are two key factors that Bank policymakers will be looking ahead of a rate decision – inflation levels and the exchange rate. Inflation has fallen by 0.1% for four consecutive months and is putting pressure on the SNB to continue lowering rates.  The next inflation report is on March 5 and another soft report would cement a rate cut at next month’s meeting.  The SNB also uses monetary policy to ensure that the Swiss franc is not too strong, which would hurt the export sector.

The US releases second-estimate GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 later today. The initial estimate came in at 2.3%, down from 3.2% in the third quarter. The US economy remains strong and inflation has been largely contained. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates this year only once or twice, unless the economic data does not evolve as expected.

USD/CHF technical

• USD/CHF is testing resistance at 0.8992.  Above, there is resistance at 0.9018.

• 0.8969 and 0.8943 are providing support.