Summary
Consumer spending, core capital goods orders and inflation all picked up speed in April, making the Fed's task of getting inflation under control more difficult. While we recently pared our expected decline in consumer spending, there is still trouble ahead especially, if the labor market loses steam.
Economic resilience on full display in April
Today's durable goods and personal income & spending reports share a common theme of staying power. The consumer continues to deliver in a way that exceeds consensus expectations and defies predictions of a coming demise. While a simple trend extension makes a compelling case for the consumer to keep on rolling and allow the economy to achieve a soft landing, our analysis still suggests the fundamentals are deteriorating (more on that below). But there is no denying that the pace of spending revealed in today's data was stronger than expected, and the same can be said about robust core capital goods orders which may be benefiting to a degree from the sustained outlays on consumer goods. Taken together, the signal from today's data to policymakers at the Federal Reserve is that the fastest pace of rate hikes since the early 1980s has yet to sufficiently slow the economy to cool inflation. While our base case remains the FOMC holds the fed funds rate steady in June, the strong slate of data, with additional key readings on employment and inflation for May still to come, keeps the possibility of at least one more hike this cycle in play.
Even after adjusting for the biggest monthly increase in PCE inflation since January, real consumer spending rose 0.5% in April which ties the second biggest monthly gain of the past year. But critically, income growth was only sufficient to match inflation: the nominal gain of 0.4% in personal income translates to a goose-egg (0.04% before rounding) after backing out the 0.4% increase in prices. This threatens to end what is now technically a 10-month run in which income outpaced inflation, but it is increasingly evident real income is losing a bit of momentum. It is not surprising then to see consumers tap the rainy day fund again as the saving rate fell for the first time in six months.
How much longer can households spend?
The sustainability of spending is the big question. Borrowing conditions are weakening amid higher rates and a tightening in lending standards. Excess saving is dwindling, but there remains some runway. The roughly $600 billion in savings outstanding as of April implies seven months of spending power if households continue to spend it down at the average rate they have the past six months. But this is inherently an upper bound given we do not believe all of these funds are sitting idle and could have been used to purchase a home or invest in the stock market in recent years. Household checking and savings deposits provide a clearer view on liquidity but do so with a considerable lag. As of Q4, households had about $13.3 billion in cash, and in performing a similar exercise, we estimate households have about six months of spending power before cash balances fall below trend. This positions the third and fourth quarters as potentially an important consumer turning point.
The biggest near-term upside in terms of purchasing power is income. Real disposable personal income has now risen for 10 straight months, and it's providing a notable tailwind to the consumer. For us, the big inflection point comes toward the end of the year. Borrowing will almost certainly be discouraged and the savings tank will be approaching E. Throw in a deterioration in the labor market, and it's not difficult to see how spending could turn quickly.
Upside surprise from durable goods orders
Separately reported data on durable goods also came in better than anticipated. Durable goods orders advanced 1.1%, despite the Bloomberg consensus expectation of 61 forecasters looking for a 1.0% drop. While total orders were lifted by a pop in defense orders specifically, stripping away some of the volatility suggests a still solid month of orders in April. Specifically, core capital goods (excluding defense & aircraft) rose 1.4%, marking the fastest monthly gain in over a year. This adds to other manufacturing data that demonstrate some stabilization after weakness at the end of last year.
How is Q2 growth shaping up?
How do this morning's data shape growth in the second quarter? We learned yesterday that real GDP growth in Q1 was revised higher in the second estimate to show output rose at a 1.3% annualized clip at the start of the year. Our present forecast has growth expanding 1.9% in Q2. The real spending data suggest some upside risk to consumer spending in the second quarter, while the durables and advance trade data present some downside to equipment spending and net exports. For equipment spending, it is shipments rather than orders that feed into the BEA's calculation. Nondefense capital goods shipments slipped 1.8% in April and position the quarter for a weak start. The merchandise trade deficit widened to a six-month high amid a plunge in export growth, signaling a potential drag from net exports in Q2.
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A real-time quote for a fast moving stock may be more indicative of what has already occurred in the market rather than the price you will receive. Your Execution Price and Orders Ahead In a fast market, orders are submitted to market makers and specialists at such a rapid pace, that a backlog builds up which can create significant delays. Market makers may execute orders manually or reduce size guarantees during periods of volatility. When you place a market order, your order is executed on a first-come first-serve basis. This means if there are orders ahead of yours, those orders will be executed first. The execution of orders ahead of yours can significantly affect your execution price. Your submitted market order cannot be changed or cancelled once the stock begins trading. Initial Public Offerings may be Volatile IPOs for some internet, e-commerce and high tech issues may be particularly volatile as they begin to trade in the secondary market. 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It is possible that losses may be suffered due to difficulty in accessing accounts due to high internet traffic or extended wait times to speak to a telephone agent. Freeriding is Prohibited Freeriding is when you buy a security low and sell it high, during the same trading day, but use the proceeds of its sale to pay for the original purchase of the security. There is no prohibition against day trading, however you must avoid freeriding. To avoid freeriding, the funds for the original purchase of the security must come from a source other than the sale of the security. Freeriding violates Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board concerning the extension of credit by the broker-dealer (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) to its customers. The penalty requires that the customer's account be frozen for 90 days. Stop and Stop Limit Orders A stop is an order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the stop price chosen. You are guaranteed to get an execution. For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better. Glossary All or None (AON) A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed. Day Order A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session. Fill or Kill An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled. Good Til Canceled (GTC) An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order). Immediate or Cancel An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled. Limit Order An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases). Maintenance Call A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity. Margin Requirement Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales. Market Makers NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds. Market Order An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace. Specialists Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy. Stop An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. Stop Limit An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order. These articles are for information and education purposes only. You will need to evaluate the merits and risks associated with relying on any information provided. Although this article may provide information relating to approaches to investing or types of securities and investments you might buy or sell, Wells Fargo and its affiliates are not providing investment recommendations, advice, or endorsements. Data have been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Wells Fargo makes no warranties and bears no liability for your use of this information. The information made available to you is not intended, and should not be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice, or a legal opinion.
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