Stocks stall as Gold and Oil 'Tinderbox Hedges' dominate trading

Markets

Today's stock market played it cool compared to the recent whirlwind of ups and downs. Yet, Gold, Oil, and Bonds apparently missed the memo, soaring as stocks wrapped up the day dramatically yet unchanged, just in time for a data-packed week. It's August, and the market's pacing today was as languid as a summer fling—unpredictable yet oddly familiar. With the VIX casually hovering around 20, it suggests that the sell-off is more a controlled burn than last week’s raging inferno as traders engage in their favourite August pastime—volleying volatility back and forth, fortunately like a lazy beach ball game today.

In the geopolitical theatre, oil and gold flashed their crisis signals like neon signs at a Vegas casino—with the Middle East simmering and Putin bristling at Ukraine's bold incursion moves with NATO's gear. Stateside, the White House political saga casts our commander-in-chief more as a sitting duck than a soaring eagle.

On Wall Street, the mood was a cocktail of anticipation and anxiety. Stocks closed mixed as traders tried to shake off last week’s vertigo from the risk asset rollercoaster that spun right back to square one. This week dishes out a feast of economic indicators, from CPI to Retail Sales, each capable of stirring the Federal Reserve pot—will it be a gentle 25-basis point stir or a vigorous 50-point shake?

The market's pulse on the economy is reading slow, steering the debate from "will they cut rates in September?" to "by how much?" Most traders are betting on a modest trim, but a bullish faction is holding out for a deeper cut.

As we cast our gaze beyond the immediate week, all focus shifts to Jay Powell's headline act in Jackson Hole, setting the stage for an FOMC meeting that could ripple through markets far beyond the usual echoes. This encounter may well transcend typical policy discussions, especially with the looming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report in early September poised to confirm or quell the murkiest recession speculations. Gear up for a week where each market tick could very well be the tock echoing toward a significant economic revelation.

Volatility might come back this week, especially if inflation data skews too low—amplifying recession worries—or too high, stoking fears that the Fed won't be able to slash rates swiftly enough to shield the economy. Amidst this, geopolitical tensions continue to simmer, adding an extra layer of unease. For those speculating, it's a tricky tape to navigate, with daily return kurtosis and heavy tail risks making each headline a potential minefield. Plus, the typical investor psychology comes into play; risk aversion tends to spike when global stability wobbles. Yet, this climate of fear can fuel a gold rush, the time to stock up on shiny 99.9 % pure gold objects.