Steady risk appetite amid macro data and earnings avalanche due to proximity of upcoming US data

Notes/observations

- Equities are flat to higher as key catalysts for direction are further down the road despite a large confluence of earnings and macro-economic data this morning. In focus is US ADP, Q1 GDP (08:30 ET), Chicago PMI (09:45 ET) and PCE Price Index (10:00 ET).

- Italy and France GDP beats estimates while Germany contracts in YoY comparison but in line with consensus. CPI readings from France and Poland were mixed. German State CPIs point to national reading (08:00 ET) close to estimate of 2% (also ECB target).

- Super Micro preannouncement weighs on US tech names.

- Ahead of this morning’s US Q1 2025 GDP release (consensus -0.2% q/q), two trackers are flashing negative print: the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow (–2.7% standard model; –1.5% gold-adjusted) and Goldman Sachs’ tracker (now –0.8% annualized). Reminder: Atlanta Fed to publish its initial Nowcast of Q2 US GDP growth around noon today, Apr 30th.

- On trade front, Trump hints at a trade deal pending approval with an un-named country while remaining confident on China negotiations.

- Key EU earnings from: UBS, Santander, Credit Agricole, Barclays, Volkswagen, Mercedes, Stellantis, DHL, Hapag-Lloyd, Aixtron, GSK, Glencore, Smith & Nephew, Aston Martin, Taylor Wimpey, TotalEnergies, Equinor, Iberdrola, ASM, ArcelorMittal.

- European markets to go on holiday tomorrow, Thurs May 1st, with exception of UK.

- Asia closed mixed with NZX50 underperforming -1.0%. EU indices -1.5% to +0.4%. US futures +0.1% to -0.2%. Gold -1.1%, DXY +0.2%; Commodity: Brent -1.0%, WTI -1.1%; Crypto: BTC -0.2%, ETH -1.9%.

Asia

- China Apr Manufacturing PMI (Govt Official): 49.0 v 49.7e (1st contraction in 3 months); Non-manufacturing PMI: 50.4 v 50.6e (29th month of expansion).

- China Apr Caixin PMI Manufacturing: 50.4 v 49.8e (7th month of expansion).

- Australia Mar CPI Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.2%e; CPI Trimmed Mean Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.7% prior.

- Australia Q1 CPI Q/Q: 0.9% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.3%e.

- Australia Q1 CPI Trimmed Mean Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.8%e.

- Australia Mar Private Sector Credit M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 6.5% v 6.5% prior.

- Japan Mar Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: -1.1% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v +0.7%e.

- South Korea Mar Industrial Production M/M: 2.9% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 5.3% v 3.0%e.

- New Zealand Apr ANZ Business Confidence: 49.3 v 57.5 prior.

- Australia Treasurer Chalmers noted that market expected more interest rate cuts after inflation figures; did not see anything in the numbers that would 'substantially' alter market expectations.

Global conflict/tensions

- Pakistan Information Min believed India was planning an attack within the next 24-36 hours.

Europe

- UK Apr Lloyds Business Barometer: 39 v 49 prior.

Americas

- Pres Trump stated that if trade negotiations took too long then we'll just set a price; India, France, and China Officials were coming to make a trade deal. Stated that would like low interest rates; Fed person not really doing a good job; inflation was basically down; we’ll pass tax cuts in coming weeks/months; House GOP working to invest more in Medicare.

- Treasury Sec Bessent stated that there was a plan for changes to auto tariffs; Reiterated view that tariffswere ‘unsustainable’ on China’s side.

- Chile Central Bank (BCCh) left Overnight Rate Target unchanged at 5.00% (as expected).

Energy

- Weekly API Oil Inventories +3.8M v -4.6M prior.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.18% at 526.06, FTSE +0.02% at 8,465.08, DAX +0.30% at 22,517.00, CAC-40 +0.37% at 7,584.19, IBEX-35 -1.55% at 13,159.43, FTSE MIB -0.47% at 37,696.00, SMI +0.27% at 12,102.20, S&P 500 Futures -0.17%].

Market focal points/key themes: European indices opened mostly higher but upward momentum stalled in the early part of the session; optimism seen following reported progress in trade negotiations; Israel and Sweden closed for holiday; IBEX underperforming the wake of the blackout; among sectors leading into the green are communication services and telecom; sectors inclined to the downside include materials and energy; focus on US GDP and PCE price index coming out later in the day; earnings expected in the upcoming Americas session include GE Healthcare, Microsoft, Meta, and Ebay.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Deutsche Post [DPW.DE] +3.5% (earnings; affirms outlook), Remy Cointreau [RCO.FR] +5.0% (earnings).

- Energy: TotalEnergies [TTE.FR] -4.0% (earnings).

- Financials: UBS [UBSG.CH] +1.5% (earnings), Barclays [BARC.UK] -0.5% (earnings), Santander [SAN.ES] -4.5% (earnings).

- Healthcare: GSK [GSK.UK] +3.5% (earnings).

- Industrials: Stellantis [STLA.NL] +2.5% (earnings; withdraws outlook; recovery in North America at very early stage, with improvement in retail orders intake), Volkswagen [VOW3.DE] -0.5% (final earnings), Mercedes-Benz [MBG.DE] -1.0% (earnings).

- Technology: ASM International [ASM.NL] -1.0% (earnings; cut outlook; Samsung results), Logitech [LOGN.CH] +1% (earnings).

Speakers

- Russia Govt Spokesman Peskov noted that settlement should be reached with Ukraine, not with the US; India PM Modi not coming to Russia for May 9th.

- Japan PM Ishiba stated that its basic stance on tariff elimination had not changed. Not thinking about new economic package at this moment.

- Thailand Central Bank Policy Statement noted that the decision to cut by 25bps was not unanimous (5-2). Prepared to adjust rates as appropriate. Inflation seen below the target range while medium-term outlook to remain within target. Saw increased downside risks to growth.

- China Foreign Min reiterated that was not engaged in any tariff negotiations with the US.

- Bank of Korea (BOK) Gov Rhee noted that needed to study QE adoption if rates were near zero.

- Taiwan Central Bank (CBC) Mar Minutes noted that it kept policy steady due to uncertainty over Trump tariffs. One member stressed that there was no need to hike rates and no room to cut rates. 2025 CPI growth could still be higher than 2%. Domestic investment could be hit if TSMC suppliers moved to US.

- China Pres Xi reiterated its urge for measures to stabilize markets and expectations; To address weak links in economy. To achieve targets in all aspects.

Currencies/fixed income

- FX market saw little reaction to the plethora of inflation and growth data out of Europe during the session. Focus on the release of US Q1 Advance GDP reading later today.

- EUR/USD steady and holding below the 1.14 level. Various inflation data continued to show improvement while growth in the region limped along.

- USD/JPY at 142.80 with focus on Thurs BOJ rate decision.

- 10-year German Bund yield at 2.46% and 10-year Gilt yield at 4.44%. 10-year Treasury yield at 4.16%.

Economic data

- (FI) Finland Mar Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -1.3% v -1.0% prior.

- (FI) Finland Mar GDP Indicator Y/Y: 1.2% v 0.1% prior.

- (FR) France Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.7%e.

- (FR) France Mar Consumer Spending M/M: -1.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y:-1.5% v -0.4%e.

- (DE) Germany Apr Retail Sales M/M: -0.2% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 2.4%e.

- (DE) Germany Apr Import Price Index M/M: -1.0% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.5%e.

- (UK) Apr Nationwide House Price Index M/M: -0.6% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 4.2%e.

- (NO) Norway Mar Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.6% prior.

- (DK) Denmark Mar Unemployment Rate : 2.6% v 2.5% prior; Gross Unemployment Rate: 2.9% v 2.9% prior.

- (ZA) South Africa Mar M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 5.8% v 6.1% prior; Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 3.5% v 2.7%e v 3.7% prior.

- (HU) Hungary Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v +0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.4%e.

- (HU) Hungary Mar Trade Balance: €B v €1.1B prior.

- (TH) Thailand Mar Current Account Balance: $2.3B v $2.6Be; Overall Balance of Payments (BOP): -$1.0B v $0.2B prior; Trade Account Balance: $3.4B v $4.4B prior; Exports Y/Y: 17.7% v 13.9% prior; Imports Y/Y: 9.4% v 4.1% prior.

- (FR) France Apr Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.7%e.

- (FR) France Apr Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.6% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.7%e.

- (FR) France Mar PPI M/M: -0.6% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: -0.6% v -1.2% prior.

- (CH) Swiss Apr KOF Leading Indicator: 97.1 v 101.9e.

- (AT) Austria Q1 GDP Q/Q: +0.2% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: -0.7% v -0.9% prior.

- (AT) Austria Mar PPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.0% prior.

- (CZ) Czech Q1 Advance GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.0%e.

- (TR) Turkey Mar Trade Balance: -$7.2B v -$7.3Be.

- (TH) Thailand Central Bank (BOT) cut Benchmark Interest Rate by 25bps to 1.75% (as expected).

- (NL) Netherlands Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.9% prior.

- (DE) Germany Apr Unemployment Change: +4.0K v +15.0Ke; Claims Rate: 6.3% v 6.3%e.

- (DE) Germany Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.2%e; GDP NSA (unadj) Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.4%e.

- (DE) Germany Apr CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: 0.4% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%v 1.9% prior.

- CPI Hesse M/M: 0.5% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.4% prior.

- CPI Bavaria M/M: 0.4% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.3% prior.

- CPI Brandenburg M/M: 0.4% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.3% prior.

- CPI Saxony M/M: 0.5% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.5% prior.

- CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: 0.5% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.2% prior.

- (ES) Spain Feb Current Account Balance: €2.3B v €1.2B prior.

- (CH) Swiss Apr Expectations Survey: -51.6 v -10.7 prior.

- (IT) Italy Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.5% prior.

- (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Daily FX Purchases (NOK): -76M v -26M prior.

- (CZ) Czech Mar M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 4.4% v 4.0% prior.

- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Apr 25th (RUB): 10.04T v 18.07T prior.

- (PL) Poland Apr Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 4.2% v 4.3%e.

- (HK) Hong Kong Mar M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.7% v 6.8% prior; M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.7% v 6.8% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.0% v 5.3% prior.

- (EU) Euro Zone Q1 Advance GDP Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.1%e.

- (IT) Italy Apr Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.0%e.

- (IT) Italy Apr Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.5% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.3%e.

- (GR) Greece Feb Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 4.6% v 2.3% prior; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 5.2% v 3.1% prior.

- (GR) Greece Mar Unemployment Rate: 9.0% v 8.6% prior.

- (IS) Iceland Mar Trade Balance (ISK): 38.6B v -38.6B prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) opened its book to sell EUR-denominated 15-year OT bonds; guidance seen +93bps to mid-swaps.

- (IN) India sold total INR190B vs. INR190B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- (NO) Norway sold total NOK3.0B vs. NOK3.0B indicated in 2029 and 2032 Bonds.

- UK) DMO sold £4.5B in 4.375% Mar 2028 Gilts; Avg Yield: 3.834% v 4.263% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.48x v 3.27x prior; Tail: 0.2bps v 0.4bps prior.

Looking ahead

- (IL) Israel Mar Leading 'S' Indicator M/M: No est v 0.0% prior.

- (MX) Mexico Mar Public Balance (MXN): No est v -83.9B prior.

- (CO) Colombia Mar Retail Confidence: No est v 24.5 prior; Industrial Confidence: No est v 0.2 prior.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €2.0B in 2041 and 2044 Bunds.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of next bond auction (held on Tuesdays).

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Apr Unemployment Rate: No est v 4.0% prior.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Apr Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: No est v 1.8% prior.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Apr Preliminary CPI M/M: No est v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.9% prior.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Apr CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v 1.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.9% prior.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Mar Retail Sales M/M: No est v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.8% prior.

- 06:00 (IT) Italy Mar PPI M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 8.5% prior.

- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Apr 25th: No est v -12.7% prior.

- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell OFZ Bonds.

- 07:00 (UK) BOE’s Lombardelli.

- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Nominal (overall) Budget Balance (BRL): -56.7Be v -97.2B prior; Primary Budget Balance: +2.3Be v -19.0B prior; Net Debt % GDP: 61.5%e v 61.4% prior.

- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): No est v 6.487T prior; M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Personal Loan Default Rate: No est v 5.6% prior.

- 08:00 (DE) Germany Apr Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 2.2% prior.

- 08:00 (DE) Germany Apr CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.3% prior.

- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Mar Trade Balance (ZAR): 14.9Be v 20.9B prior.

- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Mar Monthly Budget Balance (ZAR): No est v 24.2B prior.

- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Mar National Unemployment Rate: 7.0%e v 6.8% prior.

- 08:00 (MX) Mexico Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.0%e v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: 0.7%e v 0.5% prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:15 (US) Apr ADP Employment Change: +124Ke v +155K prior.

- 08:30 (US) Q1 Advance GDP Annualized Q/Q (1st of 3 readings): 0.4%e v 2.4% prior; Personal Consumption: 1.2%e v 4.0% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Q1 Advance GDP Price Index: 3.0%e v 2.3% prior; Core PCE Price Index Q/Q: 3.0%e v 2.6% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Q1 Employment Cost Index (ECI): 0.9%e v 0.9% prior.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb GDP M/M: 0.0%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 2.2% prior.

- 08:30 (US) US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement.

- 09:00 (CL) Chile Mar Retail Sales Y/Y: 7.2%e v 2.6% prior; Commercial Activity Y/Y: No est v 2.9% prior.

- 09:00 (CL) Chile Mar Industrial Production Y/Y: 2.4%e v -3.6% prior; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 5.6%e v -1.3% prior; Copper Production: No est v 397.4K prior.

- 09:45 (US) Apr Chicago Purchase Managers Index (PMI): 46.0e v 47.6 prior.

- 10:00 (US) Mar Personal Income: 0.4%e v 0.8% prior; Personal Spending: 0.6%e v 0.4% prior; Real Personal Spending (PCE): 0.5%e v 0.1% prior.

- 10:00 (US) Mar PCE Price Index M/M: 0.0%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 2.5% prior.

- 10:00 (US) Mar Core PCE Price Index M/M: 0.1%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.6%e v 2.8% prior.

- 10:00 (US) Mar Pending Home Sales M/M: 1.0%e v 2.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -7.2% prior- 10:01 (AU) Australia Apr CoreLogic Home Value M/M: No est v 0.4% prior.

- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Oil Inventories.

- 11:00 (CO) Colombia Mar National Unemployment Rate: No est v 10.3% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 9.6%e v 9.8% prior.

- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): No est v 6.866T prior.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 17-Week Bills.

- 12:00 (RU) Russia Mar Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 2.8%e v 2.2% prior.

- 12:00 (RU) Russia Mar Unemployment Rate: 2.4%e v 2.4% prior; Feb Real Wages Y/Y: 3.6%e v 6.5% prior.

- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 2 Year Bonds.

- 13:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Total Federal Debt (BRL): No est v 7.492T prior.

- 14:00 (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Lending Rate unchanged at 9.50%.

- 19:00 (AU) Australia Apr Final PMI Manufacturing: No est v 51.7 prelim.

- 20:00 (KR) South Korea Apr Trade Balance: $4.2Be v $5.0B prior; Exports Y/Y: -1.8%e v 3.0% prior (revised from 3.1%); Imports Y/Y: -6.4%e v +2.3% prior.

- 20:01 (IE) Ireland Apr PMI Manufacturing: No est v 51.6 prior.

- 20:30 (JP) Japan Apr Final PMI Manufacturing: No est v 48.5 prelim.

- 21:30 (AU) Australia Mar Trade Balance (A$): 3.2Be v 3.0B prior; Exports M/M: No est v -3.6% prior Imports M/M: No est v 1.6% prior.

- 21:30 (AU) Australia Q1 Import Price Index Q/Q: No est v 0.2% prior; Export Price Index Q/Q: No est v 3.6% prior.

- (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Target Rate unchanged at 0.50%.

- (JP) BOJ Quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Staff Projections).