Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Danish card data suggests that spending excluding energy increased by 0.4% in September compared to the same month the year before. Consumer prices excluding energy increased by 1.5% over the same period, meaning that in real terms, spending excluding energy fell by 1.1%.
We are cautious about interpreting the decline as a clear indicator of slowing consumption, since there were five Fridays in September 2023, while there were only four in 2024, and compared to 2019, which also only had four Fridays, growth was positive. Our overall assessment continues to be that consumption moves forward at a muted pace, with bumps along the way.
Retail spending declined by 1.3% after adjusting for prices. Spending in electronic stores has been underperforming for the last couple of months. In September, spending was 3.5% lower than in September last year. We continue to see a decline in furniture spending in nominal terms, -4.2% in September, but prices decreased, so in real terms, furniture spending increased by 3.5%.
Airlines and travel agency spending rebounded. Real airline spending was positive for the first time in five months. This was driven both by higher nominal spending and by a decline in year-over-year growth in prices from 16% in September to 4.1% in September. Hotel spending increased by 11% in real terms, primarily driven by declining hotel prices. Restaurant and bar spending both fell in real terms, but these are also some of the consumption categories that increase most on Fridays.
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