SP500 "Down Early then Up"

SP500

The last Primary cycle trough started on June 28, 2018 and may have completed it’s Primary cycle trough on Oct. 29, 2018. Please note, this is not definite and we could have a secondary pull back so the Primary cycle trough is not firm yet. Markets should continue to be volatile next week.

If that was the Primary cycle low then we are in the second week of a new Primary.

If the current Primary takes out the Feb 9^th, 2018 low at 2,532 we may be looking at a much larger drop. I’m bring this up as a possibility. I think the low is in.

Price is above the 15 day sma and below the 45 day sma . The 15 day average are curling up. We are in a period of volatile congestion.

The recent move down was timing the 18-week Primary cycle and a 2 year cycle. The longer term cycles (2 year) can distort the smaller term cycles (18 week).

September 21 seems to be the crest of the last Primary cycle and may be the high for the 4 year cycle.

The following dates may have significant moves or start a move. The following aspects are for a reverse in trend or large range day. Watch Nov 16 through Nov 19, I’m looking for another volatile week.

Nov 8              Jupiter enters Sagittarius

                        May involve the start of inflationary periods.

                        FOMC

Nov 15            Mars sextile Uranus as Mars enters Pisces

                        Signal of a move or change in trend

Nov 16            Venus Direct

                        Signal of a move or change in trend

Mercury Retrograde

                        Signal of a move or change in trend

Nov 19            Mars square Jupiter

                        Signal of a move or change in trend

As usual dates are a minimum +- 3 tds. On longer timed aspects a time frame will be included.

The low of the day on Nov 9 was exactly on the 23.6% retracement. Notice we have a number of gaps. They are on the SP500, DJIA and Nasdaq. Gaps tend to be filled meaning the markets would have to move lower at some point to fill the gaps.

The following daily chart of the SP500 is what we have been showing under the 24 Harmonic chart. This is the basis of what we have been forecasting on.

Following is the 24 Harmonic chart we have shown for many months.

 

The next hits are Nov 13, 2018 and Jan. 2, 2019. The latter number is on the Uranus price line. Watch closely. We also have the Mars (red) and Jupiter (blue) crossing on Nov 14. Also watch for big moves or wide range days.

Both could be big moves or big range days.

The 9 month cycle

The above chart shows the 9 month or 39 week cycle (blue vertical lines). It was due and appears to have formed in late October. The 20 week cycle was added as well (red vertical lines). Any green lines are a combination of the 20 and 40 week cycles. The 20 week cycle was only 1 day away from the sharp move down.

The next 40 week cycle is early February 2019.

From the last few posts:

“This coming year could see an increase in geophysical activity, both earthquakes and volcanos.”

See the link under “Earthquakes”. This is an application from the USGS.

There has been a number of volcano’s erupting as well. Japan and Hawaii.

On a longer term basis the following monthly chart of the DJIA  shows the 15 year cycle (red vertical lines) and the 45 year cycle (blue lines). The 15 year is due now or took place April – June 2018. The 45 year due in Sept 2019. This is another example of a longer-term cycle possibly distorting shorter term cycles. Bear in mind they need a broad orb.

Regarding a note from a reader the 45 year cycle is the ½ cycle to the 90 year cycle. It is the vertical blue lines.

The following daily chart of the SP500 shows 2 Envelope channels. Red is the centered 

20 week envelope channel. Blue is the centered 40 week envelope channel. The dark blue squares are the Sun / Neptune square which is often a short term change in trend.

We have had this noted it was due for a sell.  Also note the dark blue squares. They are the dates of the Mars square Uranus transit.

We are entering the difficult time mentioned over the last few months.

The envelope channel charts are easy to calculate. In the above case the blue lines are based on a 40 day average but when they are plotted they are centered. For a 40 day it will be shifted by 20 days which is the ½ cycle.

The red averages are based on the 20 week so they are shifted 10 weeks or a ½ cycle.

I brought up Iran on the last post. I’ll come back to those charts on any potential signs of conflict. It is getting close. Watch the news for problems with Iran.

 

4 Year

Other longer-term aspects like the 4 year cycle are coming due. The SP500 4 year cycle should be due in mid to late 2019.

The Primary cycle top on Sept 21, 2018 at 2490.91 may have been the top for the 4 year cycle. This is not confirmed.

Other

Another very long term cycle, the 90 year, is potentially around 2022 +- a lot. More time is needed to confirm this cycle. The ½ cycle to the 90, the 45 year ties into the 90 and is due in the same time frame.