Soft Retail Sales report signals higher prices factoring into spending

Summary

Retail sales increased just 0.3% in November; less than half of the expected gain. Holiday sales are still on track to post a record for the year, but with spending slowing in the final months, it is not the finish retailers were hoping for. Consumers are no longer the price-takers they were when they were flush with cash from stimulus checks; higher prices for gas and food are  taking away wallet share from other spending categories.

Inflation's greetings

Retail sales rose just 0.3% in November, which was less than half the consensus estimate that was calling for a 0.8% gain. The main story in November is that higher prices for non-discretionary items, like food and gas, are forcing hard choices for consumers in other areas this holiday season. There is also reason to believe holiday sales were pulled forward to get ahead of supply chain snarls that left retailers worried and consumers frantic to secure their gifts in time for the holidays.

The underlying details of November sales were mixed among retailers. The largest declines came from holiday-sensitive categories, like electronics & appliances (-4.6%) and department store sales (-5.4%), which both saw the fastest decline in sales in nine months. Other categories eked out modest gains during the month. But control group sales, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline and restaurant sales and is a reliable gauge for goods spending in the GDP accounts, declined 0.1%.

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