Soft-landing, or no soft-landing, that is the question

Wells Fargo Research Team Wells Fargo

Summary

In the second part of the series, we quantify episodes of soft-landings, stagflation and recessions during the post-1950 period.
To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to present a framework to quantify periods of soft-landing for the U.S. economy.
Our work estimates that there are 13 episodes of stagflation and 13 episodes of soft-landings in the post-1950 era.
According to the NBER, there are 11 recessions during the same period.
In the next installment of the series, we'll introduce a probit framework to generate four-quarter-out probabilities of the three scenarios. These probabilities would be helpful to determine the magnitude and duration of upcoming policies, as monetary policy decisions are influenced by the near future economic outlook.

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Wells Fargo Research Team

Wells Fargo

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