Slovenia outlook: Growth expected to accelerate despite challenging environment

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

3Q24 GDP came in line with our expectations, accelerating to 1.4% y/y. Such performance was supported by the steady private consumption footprint, while net exports surprised on the positive side. We see similar growth performance going into 4Q24, suggesting overall FY24 performance around 1.5% mark. Looking into 2025, domestic demand is expected to drive growth while challenges regarding the external demand developments imply less supportive net exports contribution ahead. We see GDP gradually accelerating towards 2.0-2.5% band during 2025-26 period, with risks remaining present and linked to external demand uncertainties.

We saw significant inflation moderation throughout this year, with CPI reaching its year-low point in October at 0% y/y level. However, situation turned around going into November, with headline figure growth accelerating amid expiration of temporary measures and new system of electricity network charges. Following expected average CPI of 2.0% in 2024, headline figure is seen landing at more elevated level around 2.7% in 2025, before easing again towards lower grounds in 2026.

While 2024 budget performance is expected to slightly deviate from the consolidation path, fiscal position is expected to remain overall stable, with consolidation resuming from 2025 onwards.

Download The Full Slovenia Outlook

Author

Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

At Erste Group we greatly value transparency. Our Investor Relations team strives to provide comprehensive information with frequent updates to ensure that the details on these pages are always current.

EUR/USD holds firm near 1.1850 amid USD weakness

EUR/USD remains strongly bid around 1.1850 in European trading on Monday. The USD/JPY slide-led broad US Dollar weakness helps the pair build on Friday's recovery ahead of the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February.

GBP/USD holds medium-term bullish bias above 1.3600

The GBP/USD pair trades on a softer note around 1.3605 during the early European session on Monday. Growing expectation of the Bank of England’s interest-rate cut weighs on the Pound Sterling against the Greenback.

Gold remains supported by China's buying and USD weakness as traders eye US data

Gold struggles to capitalize on its intraday move up and remains below the $5,100 mark heading into the European session amid mixed cues. Data released over the weekend showed that the People's Bank of China extended its buying spree for a 15th month in January. Moreover, dovish US Fed expectations and concerns about the central bank's independence drag the US Dollar lower for the second straight day, providing an additional boost to the non-yielding yellow metal.

Cardano steadies as whale selling caps recovery

Cardano (ADA) steadies at $0.27 at the time of writing on Monday after slipping more than 5% in the previous week. On-chain data indicate a bearish trend, with certain whales offloading ADA. However, the technical outlook suggests bearish momentum is weakening, raising the possibility of a short-term relief rebound if buying interest picks up.

Japanese PM Takaichi nabs unprecedented victory – US data eyed this week

I do not think I would be exaggerating to say that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s snap general election gamble paid off over the weekend – and then some. This secured the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) an unprecedented mandate just three months into her tenure.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple consolidate after massive sell-off

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple prices consolidated on Monday after correcting by nearly 9%, 8%, and 10% in the previous week, respectively. BTC is hovering around $70,000, while ETH and XRP are facing rejection at key levels. Traders should be cautious: despite recent stabilization, upside recovery for these top three cryptocurrencies is capped as the broader trend remains bearish.