Darren Chu, CFA
Tradable Patterns
Silver (SI) slid a massive 7.5% plus (on the May contract) Friday breaking to a fresh 2025 low (and slightly below the December low). The bigger picture is of SI consolidating deeply where the current red 3 month candle has reversed nearly all of the prior green 3 month candle. The major uptrend since the March 2020 low is still intact for now, with last Friday’s low nearing the 50% Fib retrace of the October 2023 to March 2025 Bull Market extension, and the 38.2% Fib retrace of the September 2022 to March 2025 Bull Market extension. After what could be another down day to start the week (as the market panics from last week’s historic losses), odds will rise for short covering by Wednesday with the US FOMC meeting minutes, Thursday with the US CPI and unemployment claims, and Friday with the US PPI and preliminary UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. The weekly and daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD are tiring or steadily sloping down. I am looking to enter long in the green zone (of the daily chart), targeting the red zone for Friday. The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter).
Weekly/daily/4hr
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