Romania: Short-term fixes trump long-term investments

"Growth is never by mere chance; it is the result of forces working together." – James Cash Penney. Romania’s recent economic expansion reflects this reality - a dynamic interplay of consumer-driven momentum, fiscal policies and external constraints. While domestic demand continues to power ahead, the sustainability of this growth model is increasingly in question. Structural imbalances, policy uncertainty and global headwinds cast a shadow over an otherwise resilient economy.

Romania’s economy continues to expand, fueled by a robust consumption boom driven by rising wages and fiscal stimulus. However, this momentum is increasingly at odds with persistent structural imbalances. Net exports remain a drag on growth, with the external deficit widening as imports surge to meet strong domestic demand. Meanwhile, the government’s large budget deficit limits room for maneuver, adding pressure to an already complex policy environment.

Looking ahead, economic growth is expected to accelerate in 2025, but only if investment evolves as planned, supported by EU funds and, more specifically, RRF money. Consumption, which has been a key driver of expansion, is likely to slow down. Uncertainty remains elevated, stemming from both internal and external factors, including political developments, fiscal policy choices, and global economic conditions.

Inflation, though easing from its peak, remains sticky, complicating the central bank’s efforts to balance economic support with price stability. At the same time, the political landscape remains highly uncertain, with upcoming elections and fragmented policymaking raising concerns about fiscal discipline and reform implementation. Against this backdrop, Romania’s near-term outlook is defined by both opportunity and risk - where strong domestic demand provides resilience, but persistent macroeconomic vulnerabilities and political uncertainty could weigh on investor confidence and long-term stability.

In short, Romania’s economy is running ahead, just with a few obstacles on the track. It is a bit like driving an old car: reliable, surprisingly fast on the straights, but every now and then, you hit a pothole and wonder if the wheels will stay on.    

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