TradeTheNews.com Staff
TradeTheNews.com
General trend
- RUB indicated to drop by over 40% vs the USD.
- Russia’s capital controls in focus.
- WTI Crude FUTs rose over 6%.
- Moscow Exchange: FX repo market will be shut.
- UST yields decline [curve steepens]; Fed Fund Futures rise.
- USD trades generally firmer.
- EUR/USD declines on Russia concerns; EUR rises versus NOK, SEK and PLN.
- USD/JPY trades generally flat [Yen and USD battle for safe haven flows?]; USD/CHF trades slightly higher.
- Wheat continues to be supported by Russia and Ukraine.
- No updates have been seen regarding the Russia/Ukraine talks.
- Japan government’s position on the Russian SWIFT sanctions is not clear.
- Companies react to the new Russian sanctions [Australia sovereign wealth fund, Bank of China, BOC Aviation, BP, Equinor, GPIF].
- Financials trade lower after the SWIFT sanctions on Russia.
- Energy and Resources indices rise in Australia.
- Nikkei 225 trades only slightly lower.
- HK Casino names drop amid lockdown concerns- The strength in China payment cos. attributed to the SWIFT sanctions on Russia.
- Straits Times Index underperforms in Singapore with the focus on Russia and financial sanctions.
- Outgoing RBNZ Chief Economist commented on rates and Ukraine/Russia.
- RBA rate decision is due on Tues.
Headlines/Economic data
Australia/New Zealand
- ASX 200 opened 0.0%.
- (AU) Australia Q4 Corp OP Profit Q/Q: 2.0% V 2.0%E; inventories Q/Q: 1.1% V 0.0%E.
- (NZ RBNZ Chief Economist Ha: Wanted to give markets a strong message on our determination to control inflation, Rates 100bps above neural of 2.0% is reasonable from historical perspective; content with market pricing of rate outlook, 50bps moves are possible if needed.
- (NZ) New Zeland Feb ANZ activity outlook: -2.2 V +11.8 prior; business confidence: -51.8 V -23.2 prior; inflation expectation 5.3% v 4.4% prior.
- (AU) Australia Jan Retail Sales M/M: 1.8% v 0.3%e.
- (NZ) New Zealand PM Ardern: Arrivals to the country will no longer have to self isolate effective Mar 3rd; Outbreak could pear mid March.
- (NZ) Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Hawkesby: Can frontload policy tightening if needed; Higher oil prices add to inflation in near term.
Japan
- Nikkei 225 opened -0.1%.
- 6502.JP CEO Tsunakawa: Going private is too risky, has several risks (as activists seek sale); splitting the company into 2 is the best path for growth.
- (JP) Japan planning to raise gasoline subsidy to ¥10/L, starting in March - Japan press.
- (JP) Japan Jan Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: -1.3% V -0.7%E; Y/Y: -0.9% V 0.1%E.
- (JP) Japan Jan Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: -1.3% V -0.7%E; Y/Y: -0.9% V 0.1%E.
- (JP) Japan Foreign Min Hayashi: Japan is considering sanctions against Belarus; Russia comments on nuclear deterrence are highly dangerous.
- (JP) Japan Govt official: hard to say how Ukraine situation will impact output from March onwards.
- (JP) Japan PM Kishida: Want to act quickly to freeze Putin assets; Speed important in blocking Russia banks from SWIFT.
- (JP) Japan Top Currency Official Kanda: Discussed market conditions in wake of Ukraine War; Japan to join SWIFT Sanction against Russia.
- (JP) Japan Government Pension Fund (GPIF) (largest pension fund in the world): Holds ~¥50B of Russia bonds, ¥170B in Russia shares.
Korea
- Kospi opened -0.5%.
- (KR) North Korea claims to have conducted test to develop 'reconnaissance satellite' seen as missile launch – Yonhap.
- (KR) South Korea Govt to suspend vaccine pass enforcement at restaurants, cafes starting Tuesday, Mar 1.
China/Hong Kong
- Hang Seng opened +0.2%; Shanghai Composite opened 0.0%.
- (CN) China Diplomat Wang: One China principle is key to promoting US-China relationship; Should keep dialogue without decoupling.
- (CN) China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 6.3222 v 6.3346 prior.
- (CN) Reportedly large China state run banks in Nantong in Jiangsu province, have cut the minimum down payment required for first time home buyers to 20% (prior 30%) - press.
- (CN) China Everbright Bank researcher: Liquidity in the financial system is expected to remain reasonably ample next month given the PBOC has recently increased the scale of reverse repos – press.
- (HK) Hong Kong Feb new home sales -80% m/m, Govt cites coronavirus outbreak as reasoning.
- (CN) China PBOC to conduct CNY5.0B in 3-month Central Bank Bill Swap (CBS) operation on today's session v CNY5.0B prior.
- (CN) China Industry Min Xiao: 2021 Chip production +33% y/y, supply chain stability issues remain.
- (CN) China State Planner (NDRC) and Market Regulator (SAMR) to hold meeting with Dalian Commodities Exchange on irregular trading in Iron Spot and Futs markets.
Other
- OLAM.SG Reports FY21 (S$) Net 686.4M v 245.7M y/y; Rev 47.0B v 35.8B y/y.
North America
- AFLT.RU Flight said to have entered Canadian airspace.
- (US) White House Press Sec Psaki: Energy sanctions are certainly on the table; We have not taken them off.
Europe
- (RU) EU, US and UK Announce to cut off 'certain' Russian Banks from SWIFT (as speculated); to sanction Central Bank of Russia (CBR); cancel 'Golden Passports' program for Russian – Press.
- (RU) Russia Pres Putin ordered Russian Nuclear Frorces put on high alart - Russian press.
- (UR) Ukraine Pres Zelenskiy told UM PM Johnson he thinks the next 24 hours will crucial period for Ukraine; Spoke with EU official on Ukraine membership in the EU.
- (EU) Reportedly European Commission is planning to spend €450M of EU funds on weapons for Ukraine - press.
- ROSN.UK BP to exit its 19.75% Shareholding in Rosneft; To write down up to $25B at the end of Q1; BP's CEO Looney to resign from board of Rosneft; Effective immediately.
- (RU) Russia trying to block foreigners trying to sell Russian securities – press.
- (RU) Russia Central Bank to make decision on stock trading by 13:00 local time, confirms have ban foreigners from selling Russian securities.
- (RU) Russia Central Bank releases capital buffer to free up ~RUB733B (~$6.96B) and other additional measures to prop up banks.
Levels as of 00:15ET
- Hang Seng -1.2%; Shanghai Composite -0.2%; Kospi +0.3%; Nikkei225 -0.0%; ASX 200 +0.7%.
- Equity Futures: S&P500 -2.2%; Nasdaq100 -2.4%, Dax -3.8%; FTSE100 -2.4%.
- EUR 1.1194-1.1133; JPY 115.79-115.26; AUD 0.7194-0.7168; NZD 0.6700-0.6676.
- Commodity Futures: Gold +1.3% at $1,912/oz; Crude Oil +5.8% at $96.91/brl; Copper +0.5% at $4.51/lb.
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