Risk-on profits into CPI

Monica Kingsley Monicakingsley

S&P 500 buyers stepped in relatively fast, yesterday already, confirming what I had written on Sunday in premium stocks analysis, quoting:

(…) 4,432 holding Friday isn‘t enough – the table was set up in a much better way. The crawl through 4,460s up to 4,490 would be tough, and much depends upon whether Monday brings further weakness or not. Volume though wasn‘t typical of a stark reversal, so I‘m looking for the buyers to come back within a couple of days latest.

Not only that bonds turned decidedly risk-on yesterday, but crucially market breadth and sectoral posture (at relative expense of tech, which I also told you about) including the speed with which gold downswing was rejected, provided more confirmatory clues as to the CPI positioning – the market expects disinflation to continue, and is willing to yet again front run Powell in its Fed pause bets, which I had covered at length for you in yesterday‘s video.

Additionally, this has allowed for some good calls in the Intraday Signals, where especially today‘s move is working well.

So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter.

Let‘s move right into the charts – today‘s full scale article contains 4 of them.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq outlook

4,432 held yesterday on a closing basis, and the table is set for upswing continuation, which is what the early European session intraday call counted with. 4,455 is to give way to 4,460s before the closing bell today, and tech would play catch up on yields calming down more (10y is back below 4%) while I don‘t see star non-tech runners such as industrials, energy, today including materials, and not standing in the way financials, to interfere with by declining really.

The spike into 4,490 / even 4,500 – 4,510s discussed in another video, is still very much possible, and I‘m not looking for CPI kneejerk reaction to sink this scenario. The ES bias for today is still bullish, following initial selling pressure in the opening hours.

Author

Monica Kingsley

Monicakingsley

Monica Kingsley is a trader and financial analyst serving countless investors and traders since Feb 2020.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.