Notes/Observations
- Risk-off ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls: Earlier in the week, saw weakness from Jolts job openings and ADP employment change as prints missed estimates. Fed Watcher Timiraos in an overnight piece, said outcome of today’s jobs report will likely dictate the size of Fed’s rate cut in Sept, with 25bps and 50bps the options.
- Crude oil firms up after OPEC+ confirmed 2-month extension for output cuts, with 8 countries voluntarily participating (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman)
- French bond yields move in steady fashion after PM announcement.
- In the chip space, US targets China with new quantum and chip-related export curbs, which later on matched by Taiwan on China. More developments for Intel, as Qualcomm reportedly explored acquiring pieces of Intel chip design business. Broadcom down ~10% in premarket after earnings.
- Asia closed lower with Nifty50 underperforming -1.2%. EU indices are -0.4% to -0.8%. US futures are -0.4% to -1.3%. Gold +0.1%, DXY -0.2%; Commodity: Brent -0.1%, WTI -0.2%; Crypto: BTC -2.2%, ETH -2.3%.
Asia
- South Korea July Current Account: $9.1B v $12.3B prior.
- Japan July Household Spending Y/Y: 0.1% v 1.2%e.
- Australia July Home Loans Value M/M: 3.9% v 1.0%e.
Americas
- Fed's Goolsbee (non-voter for 2024) noted that economic data justified multiple rate cuts.
- Treasury Sec Yellen stated that have a good, healthy job market; Growth continued at a rapid pace.
- Goldman Sachs analyst noted that if the US unemployment rate was 4.3% or higher or if it was between 4.2-4.3% coupled with a NFP reading under +150K then would expect the Fed to enact a 50bps cut in Sept.
Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum
Equities
Indices [Stoxx600 -0.6% at 509, FTSE -0.5% at 8201, DAX -0.8% at 18441, CAC-40 -0.5% at 7393, IBEX-35 -0.5% at 11221, FTSE MIB -0.8% at 3272, SMI -0.7% at 11960, S&P 500 Futures -0.7%].
Market focal points/key themes: European indices opened lower across the board, with the downward bias remaining in place through early trading; among sectors managing some gains are real estate and health care; sectors leading the way lower include financials and energy; banking subsector weighed by Raiffeisen shares; Nationwide receives regulatory approval to acquire Virgin Money; focus on US NFP later in the day; no major corporate earnings expected in the upcoming Americas session.
Equities
- Consumer discretionary: Dalata Hotel Group [DHG.IE] -2.0% (analyst downgrade).
- Energy: Rubis [RUI.FR] -8.5% (results).
- Financials: Viel & Cie [VIL.FR] +7.5% (results).
- Healthcare: Carmat [ALCAR.FR] -3.3% (results).
- Utilities: Elis [ELIS.FR] -15.0% (takeover offer).
- Technology: LEM Holding [LEHN.SE] +2.0% (analyst upgrade); PSI Software [PSAN.DE] +1.5% (results); ATOSS Software [AOF.DE] -9.0% (major shareholders AOB Invest and General Atlantic place 1.08M shares at €120.00 each).
-Real Estate: Inmobiliaria Colonial [COL.ES] +2.0% (analyst upgrade).
Speakers
- Poland Central Bank (NBP) Litwiniuk commented that 2nd half of 2025 could be right time to cut rates.
Currencies/fixed income
- USD consolidated its losses following the ADP Employment release on Thurs. Upcoming jobs report to influence Fed's decision on size of Sept rate cut with dealers now preparing for a weak Non-Farm print. Goldman Sachs analyst noted that if the US unemployment rate was 4.3% or higher or if it was between 4.2-4.3% coupled with a NFP reading under +150K then would expect the Fed to enact a 50bps cut in Sept. Greenback finding headwinds on policy divergence among the G7 currencies.
- EUR/USD at 1.1115 area ahead of mid-session.
- USD/JPY moved lower to test 142.06 during Asia as speculation circulated that BOJ rates hikes could be faster than expected.
Economic data
- (SE) Sweden Aug Maklarstatistik Housing Prices Y/Y: 0.5% v 1.2% prior.
- (UK) Aug Halifax House Price Index M/M: 0.3% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 4.3% v 2.3% prior (highest since Nov 2022).
- (DE) Germany July Industrial Production M/M: -2.4% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -5.3% v -3.5%e.
- (DE) Germany July Trade Balance: €16.8B v €20.9Be; Exports M/M: 1.7% v +1.1%e; Imports M/M: 5.4% v 0.7%e.
- (SE) Sweden Aug Budget Balance (SEK): -0.3B v +6.4B prior.
- (NO) Norway July Industrial Production M/M: -3.8% v +7.7% prior; Y/Y: 10.1% v 14.9% prior.
- (NO) Norway July Manufacturing Production M/M: 2.0% v 2.0% prior; Y/Y: 6.6% v 2.1% prior.
- (FI) Finland July Preliminary Trade Balance: €0.1B v €1.0B prior.
- (DK) Denmark July Industrial Production M/M: 7.3% v 0.1% prior.
- (RO) Romania Q2 Preliminary GDP (2nd of 3 readings) Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.1% advance; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8% advance.
- (ZA) South Africa Aug Gross Reserves: $63.2B v $62.3B prior; Net Reserves: $60.1B v $59.2B prior.
- (HU) Hungary July Industrial Production M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -6.4% v -5.9%e.
- (AU) Australia Aug Foreign Reserves (A$): 96.2B v 94.4B prior.
- (FR) France July Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -2.2% v -0.9%e.
- (FR) France July Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.9% v +0.9% prior; Y/Y: -3.0% v -2.0% prior.
- (FR) France July Trade Balance: -€5.9B v -€6.0B prior; Current Account Balance: -€1.2B v -€2.5B prior.
- (CH) Swiss Aug SECO Consumer Confidence: 34.6 v -32.5e.
- (CH) Swiss Aug Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 693.8B v 703.7B prior.
- (AT) Austria Aug Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.9% v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: -1.2% v +1.4% prior.
- (CZ) Czech July Industrial Output Y/Y: 7.2% v 7.3%e; Construction Output Y/Y: +2.0% v -9.4% prior.
- (CZ) Czech July Trade Balance (CZK): -4.1B v +10.2Be.
- (MY) Malaysia end-Aug Foreign Reserves: $116.8B v $115.9B prior.
- (CN) China Aug Foreign Reserves: $B v $3.294Te.
- (TH) Thailand Aug Foreign Reserves w/e Aug 30th: $235.7B v $237.0B prior.
- (CN) Weekly Shanghai Copper Inventories (SHFE): 215.4K v 241.8K prior.
- (IT) Italy July Retail Sales M/M: +0.5% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: +1.0% v -1.0% prior.
- (UN) FAO Aug World Food Price Index: 120.7 v 121.0 prior.
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Aug 30th (RUB): 18.30T v 18.33T prior.
- (HK) Hong Kong Aug Foreign Reserves: $423.4B v $419.3B prior.
- (EU) Euro Zone Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.3% prelim; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.6% prelim.
- (EU) Euro Zone Q2 Household Consumption Q/Q: -0.1% v +0.3%e; Govt Expenditures Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.3%e; Gross Fixed Capital Q/Q: -2.2% v -0.3%e; Compensation per Employee Y/Y: % v 5.1% prior.
- (EU) Euro Zone Q2 Final Employment Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.2% prelim; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8% prelim.
- (GR) Greece Q2 GDP Q/Q: % v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: % v 2.1% prior; GDP NSA (unadj) Y/Y: % v 1.9% prior.
Fixed income issuance
- (IN) India sold total INR290B vs. INR290B indicated in 2027, 2039 and 2064 bonds.
Looking ahead
- (UR) Ukraine Aug Official Reserve Assets: No est v $37.2B prior.
- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.
- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell combined ZAR1.0B in I/L 2031, 2038 and 2046 Bonds.
- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell £6.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills (£1.0B, £2.0B and £3.0B respectively).
-06:00 (IE) Ireland July Live Register Monthly Change: No est v -0.1K prior; Live Register Level: No est v 171.9K prior.
- 06:00 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) to sell Bonds via Ori Auction.
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Aug FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 4.2%e v 4.2% prior.
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserve w/e Aug 30th: No est v $681.7B prior.
- 07:30 (IN) India announces upcoming bill issuance (held on Wed).
- 07:30 (IS) Iceland to sell 7.0% Feb 2035 RIKB Bonds.
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Aug Official Reserves: No est v $214.3B prior.
- 08:00 (CL) Chile Aug CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 4.7%e v 4.6% prior.
- 08:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Vehicle Production: No est v 302.3K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 271.5K prior.
- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.
- 08:30 (US) Aug Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +165Ke v +114K prior; Private Payrolls: +140Ke v +97K prior; Manufacturing Payrolls: -2Ke v +1K prior; Birth-death Adjustment (unadj): No est v +246K prior.
- 08:30 (US) Aug Unemployment Rate: 4.2%e v 4.3% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 7.8% prior; Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.7%e v 62.7% prior.
- 08:30 (US) Aug Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.7%e v 3.6% prior; Average Weekly Hours All Employees: 34.3e v 34.2 prior.
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Aug Net Change in Employment: +25.0Ke v -2.8K prior; Unemployment Rate: 6.5%e v 6.4% prior; Full Time Employment Change: No est v +61.6K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v -64.4K prior; Participation Rate: 65.0%e v 65.0% prior; Hourly Wage Rate Y/Y: 4.8%e v 5.2% prior.
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales.
- 08:45 (US) Fed’s Williams.
- 09:00 (RU) Russia Aug Official Reserve Assets: No est v $602.0B prior (revised from $602.1B).
- 10:00 (CA) Canada Aug Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (seasonally adj): No est v 57.6 prior; PMI (unadj): No est v 55.3 prior.
- 10:30 (TR) Turkey Aug Cash Budget Balance (TRY): No est v -136.5B prior.
- 11:00 (US) Fed’s Waller.
- 11:00 (EU) Potential sovereign ratings after European close.
- 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count.
- 19:00 (CO) Colombia Aug CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 6.4%e v 6.9% prior.
- 19:00 (CO) Colombia Aug CPI Core M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 6.9%e v 7.2% prior.
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
![Will August jobs data confirm worsening conditions in US labor market? – LIVE](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Macroeconomics/EconomicIndicator/Employment/NFP/architect-with-flag-on-background-united-states-of-america-gm520844287-50048270_XtraSmall.jpg)
Will August jobs data confirm worsening conditions in US labor market? – LIVE
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release August employment data on Friday, which will feature Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and wage inflation figures. Investors will scrutinize the report to see whether the weakening labor market warrants a big Fed rate cut in September.
![EUR/USD holds above 1.1100 ahead of US jobs report](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Majors/EURUSD/money-9377516_XtraSmall.jpg)
EUR/USD holds above 1.1100 ahead of US jobs report
EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase above 1.1100 after posting strong gains for two consecutive gains. Investors await the August jobs report from the US, which will include Nonfarm Payrolls and wage inflation figures.
![GBP/USD consolidates near 1.3200 as focus shifts to NFP](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Majors/GBPUSD/iStock-1178148633_XtraSmall.jpg)
GBP/USD consolidates near 1.3200 as focus shifts to NFP
GBP/USD trades in a narrow range slightly below 1.3200 in the European session on Friday. Market participants refrain from taking large positions as focus shifts to August Nonfarm Payrolls data from the US, which could influence the Fed's rate outlook.
![Gold extends recovery after weak US ADP payrolls data](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Commodities/Metals/Gold/Gold_Bar_XAU_Precious_Metal_XtraSmall.jpg)
Gold extends recovery after weak US ADP payrolls data
Gold trades back inside familiar territory, exchanging hands in the $2,510s on Friday after extending its rebound following the release of more weak jobs’ data from the US on Thursday, this time in the form of private payrolls data, which grew at a slower pace than expected.
![Why Ethereum is underperforming Bitcoin, Solana, Nvidia, Meta, Apple and others](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Cryptocurrencies/Coins/Ethereum/ethereum_XtraSmall.jpg)
Why Ethereum is underperforming Bitcoin, Solana, Nvidia, Meta, Apple and others
Ethereum (ETH) is down 2% on Thursday following a key analysis showing the top altcoin has underperformed assets, including Bitcoin, Solana, Nvidia, Meta, Apple, Gold and others. CryptoQuant analysts and the F2pool co-founder weigh in on why ETH has underperformed and what investors should expect.
![Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/IT/Testing/Review/FXSBadgeCertifiedBackg_XtraSmall.png)
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know
VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.