Real Estate Storm Warning Upgraded to Severe

Manhattan has seen real estate sales fall 40% since the second quarter of 2017, with prices falling the most on the high-end. New condo listings are down 54% and existing condo listings are down 18%.

Toronto has seen a similar 39.5% decline in sales over the last year, with prices down 14% and falling. The average house price there is down from $915,000 to $785,000. That’s a big haircut. (I’m speaking there in early May and will see some friends and see how they are faring. I’ll let you know what I find out from those on the ground.)

London real estate prices have fallen 2.6% year-over-year, with prices in high-end areas like Wandsworth down 14.9%.

Miami now has an overhang of supply of about four years for luxury condos in Miami Beach, Bal Harbor, and Sunny Isles… and more than six years in the downtown Miami/Brickell area. (Basically, there are far more people wanting to sell than buy!)

The last time my wife and I were there, we saw more cranes than we saw in Dubai in 2006 before it’s great bust.

All of these signs point to the beginning of the end of this real estate bubble.

Prices are still edging up in California, especially San Francisco, but teachers there are staying in dorm rooms to survive.

Vancouver is still edging up despite stiff foreign-buyer taxes that goosed the Toronto market at first, but is now collapsing.

If you’re living in these late stage, still booming bubble markets, from L.A. to Denver, Seattle to Boston, get out now!

I’m upgrading my real estate storm warning to “severe.”