RBA minutes hawkish, Aussie edges higher

The Australian dollar has edged higher on Tuesday.  AUD/USD is trading at 0.6243 in the European session, up 0.28% on the day.

RBA minutes: Don’t count on more cuts

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes from the February meeting reiterated the central bank’s cautious stance.  The meeting marked a milestone as the RBA pressed the rate-cut trigger for the first time in four years, after maintaining the cash rate at 4.35% for over a year.  The decision was a “hawkish cut” with a message for the markets not to expect a series of rate cuts.

In the minutes, members said the rate cut did not “commit them to further rate cuts”, a warning that the easing cycle could be short.  The RBA remains concerned about inflation even though it has dropped to 2.4%, in the mid-range of the RBA’s target band of 2%-3%.  Governor Bullock has said that the RBA is keeping a close eye on the labor market, which has been resilient and not supportive of further rate cuts.

Another headache for the RBA is the threat of US tariffs, in particular the specter of another US-China trade war.  Both countries have imposed new tariffs on the other, and a damaging trade war would hurt Australia’s export industry, as China is Australia’s largest trading partner.

Australian Retail Sales rebound

Australia’s retail sales posted a turnaround in January, with a gain of 0.3% m/m.  This matched the market estimate and followed the 0.1% decline in December.  The driver of the gain was food-related spending and most sub-categories showed an increase in spending.  The outlook for consumer spending has improved, with the RBA rate cut, the drop in inflation and cuts to income tax.

AUD/USD technical

• AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6228.  Above, there is resistance at 0.6251.

• 0.6200 and 0.6177 are providing support.