Quiet Tuesday amid lack of key data plus upcoming BoJ and Fed-speak at end-of-week

General trend

- Australia RBA Minutes showed that members agreed it unlikely rates would be cut in the short term and that the risk of not reaching target goal in reasonable time has risen. An immediate hike in rates could be justified if risks to inflation increase 'materially'. AU 3 yr yield +3.3bps on session

- After several cuts across a range of interest rates during the month of July, China PBOC maintained the Loan Prime Rates for both 1-year and 5-year tenors in the month of August.

- Shares of Seven & I (Japan 7-11) lost 9% of their 22% gain yesterday as the Board mulled the offer from Canadian convenience store company Alimentation Couche-Tard.

- New Zealand Fin Min Willis announced that the Govt will issue a new policy remit, that may include legislative changes to the RBNZ to improve competitiveness in the NZ banking sector. Willis added that she wanted the now state-owned Kiwibank to become a “maverick” that exerts real competitive pressure on the big four banks in NZ. Stated that Bank competition in NZ resembles a 'cozy pillow fight'.

- Japan Ruling-party LDP leadership Election Committee to replace PM Kishida (vote on Sept 27th) announced that Japan LDP Lawmakers and the "rank-and-file" groups to each get 367 votes. (General public do not take part in the process).

- Amid a paucity of major data this week (US Fed Minutes the stand-out), markets are looking ahead to Japan Parliament's special session of the lower house committee on Aug 23rd [Fri] at 9:30am local time (12:30am GMT) to discuss BOJ rate hike [unclear if Gov Ueda to speak]; Followed Friday night by US Fed Powell's Jackson Hole speech.

- US equity FUTs flat to +0.2% during Asian trading.

Looking ahead (Asian time zone)

- Tue Aug 20th (Tue night CA July CPI).

- Wed Aug 21st JP July Balance of Trade, KR Aug Biz Conf, (Wed eve Indonesia BI rate decision, Wed night US FOMC July 31st Minutes).

- Thu Aug 22nd AU + JP + ID Aug Flash PMIs, KR BOK rate decision, (Thu eve DE + EU HCOB Aug Flash PMIs).

- Fri Aug 23rd JP July National CPI (Fri night US Fed Powell Jackson Hole speech).

Holidays in Asia this week

- Wed Aug 21st Philippines.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 opens +0.2% at 7,992.

- RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) AUG MINUTES: Members agreed unlikely rates that would be cut in the short term.

- Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 83.0 v 83.9 prior.

- New Zealand July Trade Balance (NZD): -0.963B v 0.7B prior.

- New Zealand July REINZ House Sales Y/Y: +14.5% v -25.6% prior.

- New Zealand Fin Min Willis: Confirms Govt will act on all 14 banking Report recommendations for Kiwibank; To issue new policy remit to RBNZ - financial press.

- New Zealand RBNZ to consider Govt response to NZ banking competition Report - financial press.

- New Zealand Treasury: Labour data shows economy is weaker than expected.

- New Zealand DMO [debt agency] opens book to sell new 4.25% May 2036 bond via syndication.

China/Hong Kong

- Hang Seng opens +0.5% at 17,661; Shanghai Composite opens +0.1% at 2,895.

- (CN) CHINA PBOC MONTHLY LOAN PRIME RATE (LPR) SETTING: Maintains both rates.

- China unleashes rare financing tool to support start-ups; during the first 6 months of 2024 total new intellectual property-pledged financial loans rose by 57% y/y to CNY420B - FT.

- China reportedly will further relax foreign investment access - State TV [overnight update].

- China reportedly extends anti-dumping measures on rubber from US, EU and UK – press [overnight update].

- China PBOC reportedly signs MOU with State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) on currency settlement – press [overnight update].

- China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 7.1325 v 7.1415 prior.

- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY149B in 7-day reverse repos; Net drains CNY237B v net drains CNY22B prior.

Japan

- Nikkei 225 opens +1.2% at 37,847.

- Japan July Tokyo Condominiums for Sale Y/Y: -42.3% v -12.8% prior.

- Japan government to raise long-term rate assumption to 2.10% in FY25/26 (v 1.5% in FY24/25) - Japanese press [update].

- Japan LDP member Ishida: "mostly' secured enough backers [for LDP leadership election].

- Japan Ruling-party LDP leadership election process gets underway for Sept 27th vote - financial press.

- JAPAN SELLS ¥1.0T VS. ¥1.0T INDICATED IN 20-YEAR JGB BONDS; AVG YIELD: 1.7060% V 1.930% PRIOR; BID-TO-COVER: 3.42X V 3.80X PRIOR.

South Korea

- Kospi opens +0.9% at 2,699.

- South Korea Aug Consumer Confidence: 100.8 v 103.6 prior.

- South Korea Q2 Household Credit (KRW): 1,896T v 1,883T prior.

Other Asia

- (IN) India Central Bank (RBI) Aug Bulletin: Inflation moderated primarily due to base effect; Demand conditions are gathering momentum [overnight update].

North America

- (US) Pres Biden at Democrat DNC Convention in Chicago: Democracy has prevailed, now it must be preserved - speech.

- (US) Fed's Kashkari (non-voter for 2024 and 2025): The balance of risks has shifted, so the debate about potentially cutting rates in September is an appropriate one to have.

- (US) Redfin: Sales of existing homes rose 0.6% m/m in July, but fell 2% y/y (the lowest July level in records dating back to 2012); Pending sales—a more current gauge of demand that includes both existing and newly-constructed homes—fell to the lowest level of any month on record aside from April 2020.

- (US) Mid-Aug Manheim wholesale used vehicle Index: 202.6 v 201.6 prior; +0.5% m/m; -4.5% y/y; Clearly experienced strength in wholesale values for the full month of July, and that trend has continued so far into August.

- (US) JULY LEADING INDEX: -0.6% V -0.4%E.

- (CA) Canada Labor Min: Railway companies and union must do the work necessary to reach agreements and prevent a full work stoppage.

- (US) NY Fed: SCE Labor Market Survey Shows Sharp Increase in Job Seekers, While Current Job Satisfaction Deteriorates; Rising number of workers dissatisfied with work compensation in July - press.

Europe

- (EU) ECB Rehn (Finland): Recent increase in negative growth risks in Euro Zone reinforces the case for a rate cut at Sept meeting - comments in NY City (First ECB member comments during Summer break).

- (IL) US State Sec Blinken: Meeting with Netanyahu was constructive, is said to support Gaza bridging proposal; Cease-fire resolution has given us a real sense of urgency; The next step is for Hamas to agree with to the terms.

Levels as of 01:20 ET

- Nikkei 225 +2.2%; ASX 200 +0.2%; Hang Seng -0.4%; Shanghai Composite -1.1%; Kospi +1.1%.

- Equity S&P500 FUTs flat; Nasdaq100 FUTs +0.1%, Dax +0.1%; FTSE100 flat.

- EUR 1.1075-1.1078: JPY 145.84-147.16; AUD 0.6714-0.6739; NZD 0.6108-0.6121.

- Gold flat at $2,540/oz; Crude Oil -0.8% at $73.11/brl; Copper -0.6% at $4.1715/lb.