Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA
Financial Source
The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) have revised higher their platinum forecast prices. The WPIC has revised its platinum deficit forecast for 2023, up 77% to 983 koz, as it projects demand to grow by 28% and supply to decrease by 1% year-on-year. It also projects this year to be a record year for industrial demand, growing by 17% year-on-year (+382 koz) to 2,628 koz. So, is Platinum heading for higher prices on a weaker USD, rising demand, and less supply?
One seasonal pattern to be aware of is a period of seasonal weakness ahead. Over the last 15 years, Platinum prices have fallen 60% of the time for an average fall of -5.85% over the period between Aug 1 and Oct 4. Are any dips worth buying on the WPIC’s forecast? Or will different forces move Platinum markets this year?
Major Trade Risks: The main risk here would be higher inflation prints out of the US and/or more hawkish Fed policy expectations as well as specific Platinum supply/demand news.
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