The OECD said the global economy will avoid a recession this year, and next year, and that unemployment rates won’t skyrocket. That was the good news.
But growth will be low and slow, and inflation will remain high, keeping central bank policies tight. That was the bad news.
The S&P500 gained, as strong earnings from retailers improved sentiment before Thanksgiving. Energy stocks performed well on the back of a sustained recovery in crude oil.
Shell rallied 5% on announcement that the company will be reviewing its investment in the UK to avoid paying windfall taxes to the British government. BP rallied 6.52%.
In central bank news, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its rates by 75bp as expected today. The US dollar softened, and the EURUSD rebounded past 1.0320 in the middle of mixed comments about what the European Central Bank (ECB) should do at its next meeting.
In precious metals, gold slid yesterday despite a softer US dollar, and softer yields.
In China, stocks were not looking good as Beijing and Shanghai put stricter rules to slow the Covid contagion, again! But Alibaba rebounded almost 4% in HK today, on news that Ant Group would pay a fine over a billion USD.
In cryptocurrencies, traders remain on the edge, on news that a ‘substantial amount’ of FTX assets have either been stolen or are missing. Bitcoin however resists. The price of a coin recovered above $16K yesterday, but risks remain tilted to the downside.
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
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EUR/USD stays near 1.0400 in thin holiday trading
EUR/USD trades with mild losses near 1.0400 on Tuesday. The expectation that the US Federal Reserve will deliver fewer rate cuts in 2025 provides some support for the US Dollar. Trading volumes are likely to remain low heading into the Christmas break.
GBP/USD struggles to find direction, holds steady near 1.2550
GBP/USD consolidates in a range at around 1.2550 on Tuesday after closing in negative territory on Monday. The US Dollar preserves its strength and makes it difficult for the pair to gain traction as trading conditions thin out on Christmas Eve.
Gold holds above $2,600, bulls non-committed on hawkish Fed outlook
Gold trades in a narrow channel above $2,600 on Tuesday, albeit lacking strong follow-through buying. Geopolitical tensions and trade war fears lend support to the safe-haven XAU/USD, while the Fed’s hawkish shift acts as a tailwind for the USD and caps the precious metal.
IRS says crypto staking should be taxed in response to lawsuit
In a filing on Monday, the US International Revenue Service stated that the rewards gotten from staking cryptocurrencies should be taxed, responding to a lawsuit from couple Joshua and Jessica Jarrett.
2025 outlook: What is next for developed economies and currencies?
As the door closes in 2024, and while the year feels like it has passed in the blink of an eye, a lot has happened. If I had to summarise it all in four words, it would be: ‘a year of surprises’.
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