The NZD/USD pair has shown signs of recovery, reaching 0.5941 after initially plunging to a nine-month low. This downturn was triggered by concerns over a potential US recession, driven by weak job sector data, which rattled global financial markets.
As risk aversion spiked, the New Zealand dollar and other currencies declined steeply. This market turmoil reflects growing fears that the Federal Reserve may run out of time to adjust monetary policy to avert economic troubles.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will meet next week. Current market expectations lean towards a rate cut, possibly by 25 basis points, reducing the interest rate to 5.25% per annum on 14 August. This anticipated move is part of a broader global trend towards monetary easing.
Further rate reductions in New Zealand could follow, with projections suggesting a potential decrease to 4.75% per annum by the end of 2024.
Technical analysis of NZD/USD
On the H4 chart, the NZD/USD pair executed a downside wave to 0.5850 and a correction to 0.5977. Today, the market is forming another wave of decline towards 0.5800, after which a correction to 0.5977 is likely (testing from below). On the technical analysis side, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator with its signal line above the zero mark and pointing downwards.
On the H1 chart, the NZD/USD pair forms downward waves to 0.5892. After working off this level, a correction to 0.5936 (testing from below) is likely, and the next wave of decline to 0.5850 is expected to develop with the prospect of trend continuation to 0.5800. This bearish NZD/USD forecast is corroborated by the Stochastic Oscillator, whose signal line is currently below 50 and showing a solid downward trend.
Investors and traders will closely monitor upcoming speeches and reports from central banks, especially the Federal Reserve and RBNZ, as these will significantly influence the currency pair's movements in the near term.
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