The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its key rate unchanged at 5.5%, the highest in 15 years, but on hold for six months now. The decision was in line with market expectations. However, the NZDUSD rallied, adding over 1.2% at one point and touching 0.6200, a 4-month high. The buying impulse came from the CB’s vocal preparedness to raise rates if needed. The RBNZ’s rate forecasts became more hawkish, confirming a willingness to act. The committee revised its August forecast expecting a higher rate in a year than it does now, fitting in with the latest Central Bank’s mantra “higher for longer”.
But intraday, the Kiwi’s dynamics changed dramatically. At the height of morning trading in Europe, NZDUSD erased all gains following the publication of the RBNZ decision, pulling back to 0.6150. The New Zealand dollar sell-off so far looks like profit-taking after rallying 5.8% in a fortnight following a weak US inflation report. Sellers showed up after the NZDUSD entered the overbought area on RSI on daily charts.
On the higher timeframes, NZDUSD almost touched the upper boundary of the descending corridor, which the pair has mainly followed since March 2021. This year, the pair have spent a lot of time near the lower boundary, while reversals down from the upper boundary have been swift. During the period of this channel, it took only 5-6 weeks to move from the upper boundary of the range to the lower boundary. If the pattern repeats for the sixth time, NZDUSD could reach the 0.5750 level in early January.
The alternative bullish scenario will become mainstream only if NZDUSD can stay within the short-term growth momentum and overcome the previous local top at 0.6400.
Trade Responsibly. CFDs and Spread Betting are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77.37% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs and Spread Betting with this provider. The Analysts' opinions are for informational purposes only and should not be considered as a recommendation or trading advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
![EUR/USD stays below 1.1100, looks to post weekly losses](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Majors/EURUSD/european-euro-coin-on-top-of-american-dollar-bill-11292130_XtraSmall.jpg)
EUR/USD stays below 1.1100, looks to post weekly losses
EUR/USD continues to trade in a narrow range below 1.1100 and remains on track to end the week in negative territory. Earlier in the day, monthly PCE inflation data from the US came in line with the market expectation, failing to trigger a reaction.
![GBP/USD struggles to find a foothold, trades near 1.3150](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Majors/GBPUSD/iStock-157771037_XtraSmall.jpg)
GBP/USD struggles to find a foothold, trades near 1.3150
GBP/USD stays on the back foot and trades in negative territory at around 1.3150 on Friday. The US Dollar holds its ground following the July PCE inflation data and doesn't allow the pair to stage a rebound heading into the weekend.
![Gold retreats toward $2,500 ahead of the weekend](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Commodities/Metals/Gold/gold-bars-50657756_XtraSmall.jpg)
Gold retreats toward $2,500 ahead of the weekend
Gold stays under modest bearish pressure and declines toward $2,500 in the American session on Friday. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield edges higher toward 3.9% after US PCE inflation data, causing XAU/USD to stretch lower.
![Week ahead – Investors brace for NFP amid Fed rate cut speculation](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Macroeconomics/EconomicIndicator/Employment/NFP/america-back-to-work-gm178972493-25143312_XtraSmall.jpg)
Week ahead – Investors brace for NFP amid Fed rate cut speculation
Here comes another NFP week, with investors eagerly awaiting the results as they try to discern the size and pace of the Fed’s forthcoming rate cuts. The weaker than expected July numbers triggered market turbulence, instilling fears about a potential recession in the US.
![Easing Eurozone inflation to back an ECB rate cut in September](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Macroeconomics/Countries/Europe/Eurozone_countries/Eurozone/eu-flags-flying-at-the-european-commission-building-brussels-belgium-24759579_XtraSmall.jpg)
Easing Eurozone inflation to back an ECB rate cut in September Premium
Eurostat will publish the preliminary estimate of the August Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices on Friday, and the anticipated outcome will back up the case for another European Central Bank interest rate cut when policymakers meet in September.
![Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/IT/Testing/Review/FXSBadgeCertifiedBackg_XtraSmall.png)
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know
VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.