NVDA does it again, Bitcoin nears $100K, and markets hold their breath amid global tensions

• NVDA does it again – Why are you surprised?

• Dollar up, oil down, gold up while bonds are down.

• Bitcoin is on the verge of breaching $100k!

• FED Heads continue to ‘temper’ expectations.

• Try Stracciatella soup.

Ok –it’s over!  We can finally move on….NVDA (down 0.7%) reported last night and in case you missed it – Jensen did it again…..he doubled profits as AI chips sales soar, said that the Blackwell chip is about to exceed all revenue expectations and that demand for this chip is ‘staggering’, he said that China sales and revenue grew, he reported ‘record’ data revenue and he said that he does not see any signs of slowing its ‘mammoth growth’ – in the end it has become a stock market ‘dynasty’ – Period!  And what did all those trader types and algo’s do when the news hit the tape?  They hit the ‘sell’ button – sending the stock down 3.5% in that after hours trading (not a disaster by any stretch – the stock is up 200% ytd) – taking some money off the table just because they should, that’s what traders do…..but as a long term investor I’m sitting tight.  This morning it was quoted down at $144.80/$144.90. I’m just not sure that there is anything left for the markets to digest this year – not even the December FOMC meeting – where many investors are now expecting the FED to do nothing. 

In any event – stocks stumbled yesterday as we waited for the news all while continuing to monitor the rising tensions in the Russia/Ukraine war.  The dollar rose, bonds fell, oil fell, gold rose, and Bitcoin continued to push higher.  This morning it is trading at $98,000 – just a couple of ticks away from kissing and penetrating $100K.

At the end of the day – the Dow added 140 pts, the S&P was flat, the Nasdaq lost 22 pts, the Russell up 1, the Transports lost 24 pts while the Equal Weighted S&P gained 22 pts. 

As I noted above – treasuries lost ground yesterday…. There was a 20-yr auction that was not ‘well received’ causing prices to decline, helping to support higher yields.  TLT was down 0.3% while TLH lost 0.25%, leaving the 2-yr yielding 4.3% while the 10 yr is yielding 4.41%. I continue to think the path of least resistance for yields is up and I suspect that we will see 4.5% yields soon.

Oil fell 30 cts to end the day at $69.04 but is up 2.2% this morning at $70.82 on those continuing worries over what’s next out of Moscow.  Yesterday – Zelensky sent British made cruise missiles into Russia, this following the US made missiles that he sent in over the weekend.  Russia responds by sending in an intercontinental ballistic missile into Ukraine – raising the stakes as this was the first time he has used such a powerful, long-range missile during this ongoing conflict.  Oil is up today – on the idea that Ukraine will target Russian energy infrastructure – leaving us to wonder how Vlad will respond if that happens.

Next is the idea that OPEC+ will delay production increases when they meet on December 1st due to weak global demand – again I’m saying it is not weak demand but rather an oversupply…. but that’s me…. In any event oil remains in the $65/$72 trading range.  This morning it is piercing trendline resistance at $70.16 – leaving a challenge of $72 in sight.

Eco data today includes the Philly Fed Business Index and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing report.  At 10 am – we will get Existing Home Sales -which are expected to be up 2.9% - but I would not be surprised to see it come in weaker as rates have ticked higher over the past month. 

US futures are up this morning…Dow futures +145, S&P’s up 13, the Nasdaq is up 20 while the Russell is ahead by 17.  I love how the media is positioning the weakness (-$1) in NVDA – saying they ‘failed to meet loft expectations’ – it’s ridiculous….They beat ALL the estimates and came in a hair under the ‘whisper number’ (those are the lofty expectations) and so – the stock is weak because they didn’t beat the exaggerated expectations – it’s dumb….but it is what it is. 

Now the market will be watching today’s eco data – but I do not expect any of it to be a market mover at all…I think the FED has been very clear about what is not happening in December….Fed Governor Mishy Bowman just the latest FED head to try and ‘temper’ expectations of another rate cut after Boston’s Suzy Collins told us that more cuts are needed BUT we need to proceed carefully.  (Interpretation? – No cut in December).

The rising tensions in Russia/Ukraine will be top of mind – are we even talking Israel/Iran anymore? It is Friday and the weekend is only 8 hrs. away….and so much can happen over those two days….so I would not be surprised to see the markets just continue to churn and maybe churn a bit lower. 

Donny is expected to announce his pick for Treasury Secretary today…now that Lutnick has been awarded the Commerce Secretary – all eyes remain on Scott Bessent, Kevin Warsh and Marc Rowan…. the betting markets have Warsh in the lead…. replacing Bessent as the original favorite.

Meanwhile Bitcoin is up $2700 today and is only $2000 away from $100k. My gut says that I would not be surprised to see the bitcoin junkies just push it there to make their point…that would take the pressure off of NVDA and temporarily off of global conflicts. 

European markets are slightly higher…. France is the only one that is weaker.  Focus on the conflict keeps everyone in check. There are no eco reports out today.

The S&P closed at 5917…. And while futures are up – I am not convinced that we will end the day higher.  The market feels a bit tired, but the RSI is neither overbought nor oversold – it is right in the middle of the graph…so that is not giving us a signal… So, it’s just my gut.  In any event – remember – I still think we need to fill the gap created on November 6th…. which means we need to trade down to 5780 which is a 2.3% move lower – not a disaster at all.

As an investor – you want to see the market consolidate and digest the push higher since the election…. We remain in the 5780/6000 trading range.

Stracciatella soup

Here is another good idea for a Thanksgiving starter – or for a cold winter night. Stracciatella soup is simple. You start with the homemade chicken broth – straining any of the veggies that you cooked with it – leaving only the broth. Now if you don’t have any homemade chicken soup – then go out and buy a large can of College Inn – low sodium – chicken broth.

Now you need – the broth- enough for 6 bowls, 2 eggs, fresh grated parmigiana cheese, raw spinach, a couple of fresh basil leaves rough chopped and some Italian parsley.

Heat up the broth – while that is happening – crack the two eggs and whisk. Now add two handfuls of cheese, the basil and some parsley. Turn the heat down to low – wait for the broth to stop boiling… now stir the broth with a FORK and at the same time – slowly add in the egg and cheese mixture… continue stirring so that you form “strands” of eggs – no more than 1 min… now toss in two handfuls of the spinach – check for seasoning – adjust if necessary and then serve immediately. Always have more cheese on the table for your guests. Mmmmm – so good.