- The US gained 850,000 jobs in June, better than expected.
- Upbeat figures seem to be in Goldilocks territory, allowing the dollar to fall.
- The dollar has room to rise once the dust settles, as the Fed remains on course.
Is the lack of a presidential press conference a sign of strong jobs numbers? In the past two Nonfarm Payrolls reports, the White House pre-scheduled public appearance by President Joe Biden. Both figures missed. This time, the NFP beat estimates with 850K in June.
A third consecutive Nonfarm Payrolls disappointment was avoided – but the beat was not huge, revisions were minimal and a downside dollar correction was overdue. That explains the knee-jerk reaction of selling the dollar. It is also essential to remember that these greenback gains were fueled by the Federal Reserve, which based its policy on a better labor outlook, not an outcome.
Time to make big changes? Not so fast. Returning to normal is not like clicking the Undo button – finding workers with adequate skills and with matching salary expectations is far from easy. Nevertheless, the figures still point to rapid growth and that should encourage markets and the Fed.
Officials at the world's most powerful central bank will be responding to the NFP in the coming days and are unlikely to alter their views. The already growing chorus of officials calling for printing fewer dollars will likely continue voicing these views. Market participants are circling late August's Jackson Hole Symposium as the timing of a tapering announcement.
Moreover, wage growth remains upbeat at 3.6% YoY, and when people have more money in their pockets, it will likely exit these pockets and push prices higher. The Fed's second mandate is price stability and any such increase in salaries may convince the bank to abandon its theory that inflation is transitory. Higher pay means persistent price rises.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD traders seem non-committed around 0.6500 amid mixed cues
AUD/USD extends its consolidative price move just above 0.6500 on Friday. The RBA's hawkish and upbeat market mood supports the Aussie, though mixed Australian PMI prints fail to inspire bulls. Moreover, bets for a slower Fed rate-cut path continue to fuel the post-US election USD rally and cap the currency pair.
USD/JPY slides to 154.00 as higher Japanese CPI fuels BoJ rate-hike bets
USD/JPY languishes near 154.00 following the release of a slightly higher-than-expected Japan CPI print, which keeps the door open for more rate hikes by the BoJ. That said, the risk-on mood, along with elevated US bond yields, could act as a headwind for the lower-yielding JPY and limit losses for the pair amid a bullish USD, bolstered by expectations for a less dovish Fed and concerns that Trump's policies could reignite inflation.
Gold price advances to near two-week top on geopolitical risks
Gold price touched nearly a two-week high during the Asian session as the worsening Russia-Ukraine conflict benefited traditional safe-haven assets. The weekly uptrend seems unaffected by bets for less aggressive Fed policy easing, sustained USD buying and the prevalent risk-on environment
Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH open interest surge to all-time high after recent price rally
Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $3,350, experiencing an 10% increase on Thursday. This price surge is attributed to strong bullish sentiment among derivatives traders, driving its open interest above $20 billion for the first time.
A new horizon: The economic outlook in a new leadership and policy era
The economic aftershocks of the COVID pandemic, which have dominated the economic landscape over the past few years, are steadily dissipating. These pandemic-induced economic effects are set to be largely supplanted by economic policy changes that are on the horizon in the United States.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.