The US economy created 206k new jobs in June, slightly better than average expectations. However, May's gain was downgraded from 272k to 206k, and April's from 165k to 108k. The combined 123k downgrade of the previous two months' estimates suggests a noticeably tighter labour market picture than previously imagined.

Unemployment reached 4.1% - the highest since November 2021 - up smoothly from 3.4% in April last year. Earlier, signs of a reversal were seen in the weekly benefit claims data, which also saw a multi-month upward trend.

It is only a matter of a month or two before we see a drop in US employment, which will be an important catalyst for kicking off the rate cut cycle.

At the same time, the pace of wage growth (4.1% y/y) does not suggest elevated wage growth. Still, high inflation expectations are unlikely to allow the Fed to act quickly and decisively enough to prevent a recession in the second half of the year.

The current report is moderately negative for the USD and potentially reverses its appreciation trend since the beginning of the year. At the same time, it is short-term positive news for the stock market, as it could lead to a reassessment of expectations. But we are wary of such growth based on negativity. Sooner or later (and this moment is impossible to guess), the negativity from a slowing or shrinking economy outweighs the optimism from interest rate expectations.

Trade Responsibly. CFDs and Spread Betting are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77.37% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs and Spread Betting with this provider. The Analysts' opinions are for informational purposes only and should not be considered as a recommendation or trading advice.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD trades sideways below 1.0450 amid quiet markets

EUR/USD trades sideways below 1.0450 amid quiet markets

EUR/USD defends gains below 1.0450 in European trading on Monday. Thin trading heading into the Xmas holiday and a modest US Dollar rebound leaves the pair in a familiar range. Meanwhile, ECB President Lagarde's comments fail to impress the Euro. 

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD stays defensive below 1.2600 after UK Q3 GDP revision

GBP/USD stays defensive below 1.2600 after UK Q3 GDP revision

GBP/USD trades on the defensive below 1.2600 in the European session on Monday. The pair holds lower ground following the downward revision to the third-quarter UK GDP data, which weighs negatively on the Pound Sterling amid a broad US Dollar uptick. 

GBP/USD News
Gold price sticks to modest gains; upside seems limited amid USD dip-buying

Gold price sticks to modest gains; upside seems limited amid USD dip-buying

Gold price attracts some follow-through buying at the start of a new week and looks to build on its recovery from a one-month low touched last Thursday. Geopolitical risks stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East, along with trade war fears, turn out to be key factors benefiting the safe-haven precious metal. 

Gold News
Bitcoin fails to recover as Metaplanet buys the dip

Bitcoin fails to recover as Metaplanet buys the dip

Bitcoin hovers around $95,000 on Monday after losing the progress made during Friday’s relief rally. The largest cryptocurrency hit a new all-time high at $108,353 on Tuesday but this was followed by a steep correction after the US Fed signaled fewer interest-rate cuts than previously anticipated for 2025. 

Read more
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building

Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building

Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures