New fiscal rules in the EU – Aligning theory and practice?

The EU’s fiscal rulebook is under review. Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in the beginning of 2020, the EU’s current rulebook that limits public budget deficits of more than 3% and implies a convergence of debt-to-GDP levels to below 60% has been suspended. During that period, the EU Member States have been negotiating a new set of fiscal rules for the EU countries allowing for a less restrictive understanding of the rules. Currently there is no agreement on the new fiscal rules and the clock is ticking, as the old rules will otherwise come into force again from 1 January 2024.

We expect that the EU Member States will most likely not sign a final legal set of rules before year-end, however, we expect that they will agree on a “landing zone” for the new rules at the ECOFIN meeting on 8 December. The “landing zone” will allow the Commission to interpret fiscal rules according to this agreement instead of the old rules even though the final legal text is to be finalised. That said, the fiscal stance in the euro area becomes tighter in the coming years as sustainable public finances get renewed focus.

New rules – An evolution not a revolution

Based on the EU Commission proposal and communication from EU officials we expect that the “landing zone” will reinstate the old 3% deficit and 60% debt targets, but with greater flexibility to adapt country specific fiscal adjustment paths. The current EC’s proposal sets out to scrap the uniform 1/20th rate of debt reduction rule (which implies that countries must bring down the debt level by 1/20th of the debt to GDP level exceeding 60% each year) and replace it by country-specific fiscal pathways with four-year horizons. The fiscal adjustment path will dictate that debt-to-GDP is lower after four years and that the structural budget balance improves by 0.5 percentage points each year as long as the deficit is below 3% of GDP. The exact calibration of the numerical targets on the fiscal path may deviate after the final negotiations between Member States.

A new and central element of the fiscal rules will likely be that the reforms and investments which “enhance sustainable and inclusive growth” will allow for member states to have a more gradual fiscal adjustment path up to seven years. Member states must then comply with certain criteria such as supporting structural growth and fiscal sustainability and address key EU priorities like green transition, digitalisation and defence.

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