Navigating 2025: My insights for traders [Video]

As we step into 2025, I see a lot of movement in the markets, but with lower-than-usual volume. Today, the U.S. markets are closed for Presidents' Recognition Day, following the passing of Jimmy Carter. Looking ahead to next week, I expect markets to return to more regulated conditions, giving us a clearer picture as we start the new year.

Reflecting on 2024.

Last year was extraordinary. Bitcoin, stocks, and gold all hit all-time highs, while the U.S. dollar stayed remarkably strong. When I saw this happening simultaneously, my experience told me something had to give—and it did.

Now, the correction is evident:

• S&P 500: Lower highs and lower lows confirm a downtrend.

• Bitcoin: The same pattern emerges, signalling a structural change.

• Gold: Following the trend, it’s also showing lower tops and bottoms.

This raises the question: Will the U.S. dollar follow suit?

Trading the Current Trend.

Right now, I focus on trading the trend. My colleague often says, “A trend will go further than you expect, so keep trading it until you’re proven wrong.” It’s simple but effective advice. With the U.S. dollar continuing its upward momentum, I keep going long until the structure changes.

However, I’m cautious about entering at these low levels. If you’re trading pairs like EUR/USD or GBP/USD, it might be worth waiting for a correction before re-entering the trend.

Geopolitics adds another layer of complexity. For example, Trump’s recent push for lower interest rates and unconventional policy ideas, like aggressive tariffs, could create uncertainty.

Preparing for Volatility.

The start of 2025 feels volatile, with many questions still unanswered. Will tariffs lead to major market shifts? Are we looking at continued trade tensions? History reminds us how quickly trade wars can escalate into currency conflicts or worse.