Keep it simple stupid, says Steven Ruffley, a renowned trading mentor as lays out his quick and big trading style, saying that being smart is overrated – you need to simple things well. In a fast-moving interview with Yohay Elam, Ruffley pulls no punches when commenting about politicians, central bankers, and those with big egos. He also discusses his preferred assets to buy low and those to sell high.
Yohay Elam: How are things in New Zealand?
Yohay Elam: Has the lockdown been relaxed?
Steve Ruffley: No too bad thanks... better than other places I have lived I hear!
Steve Ruffley: Not really very strict but we are seeming to benefit now
Steve Ruffley: Hard to tell
Steve Ruffley: I work from home!
Yohay Elam: I have been there 17 years ago, and I remember it is a gorgeous country
Steve Ruffley: My life has not changed much
Steve Ruffley: It is that - the reason I moved here
Steve Ruffley: I'd never been - but it made sense to me
Yohay Elam: Oh, I thought that the elimination policy meant a strict lockdown
Steve Ruffley: No look down 4 - 5 weeks - level 3 - 3 weeks
Steve Ruffley: Basically on Thursday, a free for all
Yohay Elam: I see
Steve Ruffley: Our cases and numbers are tiny
Steve Ruffley: But we are a long way away
Yohay Elam: Indeed, few deaths and several days without new cases
Yohay Elam: Do you think New Zealand's success with curbing coronavirus is a significant reason behind the kiwi's recovery?
Yohay Elam: Or more related to risk-on?
Steve Ruffley: No
Steve Ruffley: It's 5m compliant people
Steve Ruffley: That's why it worked
Yohay Elam : And an island nation
Steve Ruffley: I have more chance of driving my car to the shop and dying than getting and dying from COVID
Yohay Elam: Indeed, I had a hard-driving there
Steve Ruffley: Hahah
Steve Ruffley: It is
Yohay Elam: So, moving to markets
Steve Ruffley: Sure
Yohay Elam: One of the hottest topics
Yohay Elam: Is the divergence between the US stock market and the real economy
Yohay Elam: The Economist put it on its cover
Yohay Elam: Why are stocks rising while data is horrible
Steve Ruffley: 1% vs reality you mean?
Yohay Elam: That's one way to phrase it
Yohay Elam : Is it the Fed?
Yohay Elam: Or five stocks in the S&P responsible for most of the gains, in line with the 1% vs reality
Steve Ruffley: The FED now is 1%, Trump made sure of that. The independence has now gone and a team of Trump conformists is making sure no matter what happens one old man's thoughts of how a successful economy is run comes true
Steve Ruffley: When did the stock market alone become the barometer of a country's success?
Yohay Elam: The Fed has always been accused of "working for Wall Street"
Steve Ruffley: Of course
Yohay Elam: But it seems to have gone into overdrive with Powell
Yohay Elam: Stocks and reality diverge, but the recent move seems extreme to me
Steve Ruffley: Scarface, first you get the money, then you get the power
Steve Ruffley: Trump never had the money
Steve Ruffley: But he now has the power
Yohay Elam: His father did
Steve Ruffley: Tiny amounts
Yohay Elam: The American Dream, just the other way around
Yohay Elam: From riches to rags
Steve Ruffley: He's no Rockefeller
Steve Ruffley: Or JFK
Yohay Elam: Nope, but he bounced from bankruptcy
Steve Ruffley: With the help of Russia and Deutsche bank
Steve Ruffley: That's all for the paper and media to speculate
Steve Ruffley: I'm no expert on Trump or his family
Yohay Elam: We will probably have the details of that only many years from now, but his urge to praise Putin doesn't look good
Steve Ruffley : He 'was rich'
Steve Ruffley: I'm sure he's now a lot richer
Steve Ruffley: What I do know...
Steve Ruffley: After 20 years of trading...
Yohay Elam: The perks of the office
Steve Ruffley: Is that this 'new norm' can't last forever
Steve Ruffley: You can't run a country like a business
Steve Ruffley: You can't also profit from office
Steve Ruffley: So blatantly - forever
Yohay Elam: Some profit from writing a book after leaving office, Trump is taking profiting to the next level
Yohay Elam: With a business, you can move to another project
Yohay Elam: In politics, China will always be there, and so will others...
Steve Ruffley: Ok take China
Steve Ruffley: How about this?
Steve Ruffley: Trade war 1929
Steve Ruffley: Lead to the great depression
Steve Ruffley: No one wins a trade war
Steve Ruffley: Trump
Steve Ruffley: Losing trade war
Steve Ruffley: China - C-19
Yohay Elam: His recent criticism of China seems to be motivated by the upcoming elections. It is a topic that resonates with the public.
Steve Ruffley: Next depression...
Steve Ruffley: Coincidence?
Yohay Elam: Hmmm
Steve Ruffley: We all got on board with China's economic figures and wizardry
Steve Ruffley: The pie was getting bigger
Steve Ruffley: Trump turns up
Steve Ruffley: Pie is smaller
Steve Ruffley: And getting smaller
Steve Ruffley: No really wins? Ego?
Yohay Elam: Ego is a strong force
Yohay Elam: Power
Yohay Elam: Getting reelected
Steve Ruffley: Coupled with the IQ of a squirrel yes
Yohay Elam: He seems to think that keeping the economy open will help him avoid depression, but he risks bringing a worse outcome
Steve Ruffley: The depression/recession is here
Yohay Elam: Indeed
Steve Ruffley: 10 years of jobs wiped out in 2 months?
Yohay Elam: No V-shaped recovery
Yohay Elam: Nor U
Steve Ruffley: How could the outcome be worse?
Yohay Elam: L?
Yohay Elam: If it cannot get worse, perhaps we are hitting the bottom? Any recovery coming?
Steve Ruffley: Who really cares?
Yohay Elam: Second half rebound?
Steve Ruffley: Maybe no second half
Steve Ruffley: Maybe this is as good as it gets?
Yohay Elam: Good enough for Trump to get reelected?
Steve Ruffley: We have pushed the money and power so far to the top it makes very little difference how an economy recovers
Steve Ruffley: He doesn't do a 2nd full term
Steve Ruffley: He will make a deal
Steve Ruffley: Or he will be taken care of
Yohay Elam: To be pardoned?
Steve Ruffley: He has too much golf to fit in
Steve Ruffley: This work stuff gets in his way
Yohay Elam: Work must be exhausting
Yohay Elam : He is a nihilist
Steve Ruffley: He a genius at making people talk about him
Steve Ruffley: Here we are now
Steve Ruffley: I've forgotten more than he knows
Steve Ruffley: But where's my Air force 1?
Yohay Elam: There's no gold in there
Yohay Elam: Yep
Steve Ruffley: But yes... there is no gold I've heard
Steve Ruffley: Only gold in them there Bitcoin hills
Yohay Elam: Bitcoin halving
Steve Ruffley: Another billionaire hoax
Yohay Elam: Do you think that has or will have an impact on prices?
Yohay Elam: Billionaire?
Steve Ruffley: It was touted as the last chance to buy - a hedge against fiat currency and inflation
Steve Ruffley: Then dropped $2k
Steve Ruffley: Its the silliest thing I've ever seen traded
Yohay Elam: Where is the inflation?
Yohay Elam: Hyperinflation
Yohay Elam: I think gold bugs moved to bitcoin
Yohay Elam: The next big thing
Steve Ruffley: Trump/Brexit/Great depression
Steve Ruffley: That can't get gold to $2k
Steve Ruffley: Nothing will
Yohay Elam: Massive money printing
Yohay Elam: The Fed's balance sheet has ballooned
Yohay Elam: Seemed to have helped gold
Yohay Elam: But only just
Steve Ruffley: Elon and the space monkeys will mine what they need from space
Steve Ruffley: There is no physical shortage of gold
Steve Ruffley: Hear about that oil stuff?
Steve Ruffley: How's that working out?
Yohay Elam: We have great olive oil here in Spain
Steve Ruffley: I know
Yohay Elam: Oil has been a roller coaster
Steve Ruffley: I've traded for 20 years
Yohay Elam: That minus sign beside WTI was interesting, to say the least
Steve Ruffley: I've managed the biggest floors in the EU
Steve Ruffley: I've never seen
Yohay Elam: It's a brave new world
Yohay Elam: Trumpian
Steve Ruffley: I mean you just don't expect a barrel of oil to turn up at your door
Steve Ruffley: Ever
Yohay Elam: Delivered by Amazon?
Steve Ruffley: I head it once with potato futures
Steve Ruffley: Uber
Steve Ruffley: Or Knight Rider
Yohay Elam: Uber Eats, that's for potatoes
Yohay Elam: So you're staying away from gold and oil?
Steve Ruffley: I short gold from time to time
Steve Ruffley: I have some basic rules with trading
Steve Ruffley: I sell the EUR, Gold, Bitcoin high
Steve Ruffley: I buy GBP USD and Indices low
Steve Ruffley: I never stray from that
Yohay Elam: EUR/USD
Yohay Elam: Selling high
Steve Ruffley: I sell high
Yohay Elam: Looking for the next troubles in the eurozone?
Steve Ruffley: The EU is a failed experiment
Steve Ruffley: Where's the good news from the EU?
Yohay Elam: EU or the eurozone design?
Steve Ruffley: Out of bullets
Steve Ruffley: Both
Yohay Elam: Policymakers here always seem slow to react
Steve Ruffley: It's been about the ECB's credibility more than the welfare of the citizens
Steve Ruffley: Bring back Trichet
Yohay Elam: Strong vigilance
Steve Ruffley: How sad is it today that - that he was the sensible one
Steve Ruffley: Hahah
Yohay Elam: Sensible?
Steve Ruffley: If I had a pound for every time...
Yohay Elam: He raised rates twice in 2011
Yohay Elam : Draghi had to undo it
Yohay Elam: The second recession
Steve Ruffley: Yes but least his forward guidance was what you went off - nothing
Steve Ruffley: Not like now where you second guess every comment made
Yohay Elam: Indeed
Yohay Elam: Draghi had good performances but also poor ones
Yohay Elam: And Lagarde seems a bit lost
Steve Ruffley: Draghi - Carney
Steve Ruffley: I'm in it for the fame
Steve Ruffley: Cut rates
Steve Ruffley: Buy bonds
Steve Ruffley: Go off and do what you want
Yohay Elam: As a marathon runner, I'm a fan of Carney
Steve Ruffley : What did they do for the world?
Yohay Elam: Indeed, Carney seemed busy being cool
Yohay Elam: His tenure at the BOC was somewhat overrated
Steve Ruffley: Turn up cuts rates...
Steve Ruffley: Pretend your not a one trick pony?
Steve Ruffley: Get the pints in for a good job?
Yohay Elam : Smile to the camera
Steve Ruffley: He's a good looking lad
Steve Ruffley: Not my bag
Steve Ruffley: But he did well for style over substance
Yohay Elam: Is there a central banker that you look up to?
Yohay Elam: A current one
Steve Ruffley: Not Orr in NZ that's for sure
Steve Ruffley: I've out guessed that clown from day 1
Steve Ruffley: No to be fair
Steve Ruffley: I have little or no respect for anyone in office
Yohay Elam: Orr opened the door to debt monetization
Steve Ruffley: I know
Yohay Elam: He went there
Steve Ruffley: Negative rates
Steve Ruffley: The whole shebang
Yohay Elam: Negative rates... Japan
Steve Ruffley: Now he's a man who does not get forward guidance
Yohay Elam: I guess he likes to speak his mind...
Steve Ruffley: He's a throwback to where men here and people listen to authority
Steve Ruffley: Why Jacinder did well
Steve Ruffley: Complaint little people
Steve Ruffley: She'll be off to head the UN soon
Steve Ruffley: A global recession sounds like hard work
Yohay Elam: Hard work and not a lot of fun
Yohay Elam: You can only be blamed
Yohay Elam: You've mentioned buying GBP low
Steve Ruffley: Yes
Yohay Elam: As one of your rules
Yohay Elam : Why is that?
Steve Ruffley: It's cheap
Steve Ruffley: I mean - it's really cheap
Yohay Elam: By PPP standards? Historic standards?
Steve Ruffley: By why I want to hold in my hand standards
Steve Ruffley: I don't make trading too smart
Steve Ruffley: I buy and sell value
Steve Ruffley: Usually for 10-20 pips
Steve Ruffley: Just at HUGE size
Steve Ruffley: My desire to be right
Steve Ruffley: Is an ego thing I've learned to control
Steve Ruffley: I just make money
Yohay Elam: 10-20 pips, for short periods of time?
Steve Ruffley: I leave being right to the big boys like Trump
Steve Ruffley: Yes
Steve Ruffley: Less than 20 mins on the whole
Yohay Elam: Being right doesn't get you places
Yohay Elam: Shortlived indeed
Yohay Elam: And huge size? What's the leverage?
Steve Ruffley: I use 500:1
Yohay Elam: That's huge
Yohay Elam: Enormous
Steve Ruffley: I am huge
Yohay Elam : Gargantuan
Yohay Elam: You put big pictures on your site
Steve Ruffley: Why I only need 10-20 pips
Yohay Elam: Quick trades, big size
Steve Ruffley: Yes
Yohay Elam: You've mentioned buying indices
Steve Ruffley: Take the money off the table first time
Steve Ruffley: Why let the market dictate your trade
Steve Ruffley: If you can't find 20 pips in a move - your not trading
Steve Ruffley: Your investing
Yohay Elam: Investments are trades gone wrong
Yohay Elam: Something I've heard many years ago
Steve Ruffley: I agree there
Steve Ruffley: I mentor lots of rich people
Steve Ruffley: They are consumed with being right
Yohay Elam: If you stay in a position for a long time, you become hostage?
Steve Ruffley: I don't care about being right - I care about money
Steve Ruffley: I see profit I take it
Steve Ruffley: You never go skint that way
Yohay Elam: Separating bias/ideology from trading is hard
Steve Ruffley: It is
Steve Ruffley: Took me 20 years to forget how to be smart
Steve Ruffley: I'm right and making money - or I'm wrong and out
Yohay Elam: And do your rich students find it hard to let go of being right?
Steve Ruffley: Yes
Steve Ruffley: Why they are rich
Steve Ruffley: But trading is its own beast
Steve Ruffley: I have to make a lot of people 'woke'
Steve Ruffley: But no matter how rich you are no one likes losing money
Steve Ruffley: So the lessons don't take too long usually
Yohay Elam: Because losing money means you are wrong
Yohay Elam: A blow to the ego
Steve Ruffley: Trading is about being right at the right time
Steve Ruffley: Any muppet can say this is going up! And lose money
Steve Ruffley: I have not timed for that
Steve Ruffley: Time is your enemy when trading
Yohay Elam: Any preferred trading times?
Yohay Elam: Or limits to the number of hours dedicated to trading?
Steve Ruffley: I only trade when I have a setup
Steve Ruffley: I don't trade more than an hour a day
Steve Ruffley: Most of my stuff is automated
Yohay Elam: Just one hour
Steve Ruffley: Yes
Steve Ruffley: If that
Yohay Elam: Automation for closing trades or also for opening them?
Steve Ruffley: I have signal alerts for manual trades and algos that trade 24/6
Steve Ruffley: I keep my eye on data
Steve Ruffley: And sometimes I just see something good
Steve Ruffley: It's so easy to make money now less is more
Yohay Elam: Anything good you've seen recently?
Steve Ruffley: GBP/NZD
Steve Ruffley: Free money
Yohay Elam: That easy?
Steve Ruffley : Yes
Steve Ruffley: Just trade 500-1000 a point
Steve Ruffley: And it's quite easy to make money
Steve Ruffley: Just don't be wrong
Yohay Elam: Convincing charts
Steve Ruffley: That's expensive
Steve Ruffley: It's a basic Fib
Yohay Elam: Indeed
Steve Ruffley: Simple is better
Steve Ruffley: Think I wrote a book on it once
Steve Ruffley: It's all on Google
Steve Ruffley: Being smart in trading is very very overrated
Steve Ruffley: Do the simple things well
Yohay Elam: Keep it simple stupid
Yohay Elam: Something every programmer is taught
Steve Ruffley: You got it
Steve Ruffley: That they are
Steve Ruffley: As you say keep it simple
Steve Ruffley: Anyway - hope you have enough there
Yohay Elam: Lots of fun
Steve Ruffley: All good
Steve Ruffley: Thanks for your time
Yohay Elam: No, thank you for your time!
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