Vikram Murarka
Kshitij Consultancy Services
The Dollar Index needs to sustain above 104, to rise to the resistance near 105.00-105.25. The Euro has fallen below 1.08 and if the fall continues, can get drag towards 1.705-1.070. EURINR if fails to see immediate bounce from current levels, can be vulnerable to fall towards 92 or lower. USDJPY and EURJPY above 150 and 162 has a scope to see a rise towards 152 and 164 respectively. The USDCNY needs to see a strong break past 7.27 to rise towards 7.30, else the range of 7.22-7.26 can continue to hold. AUDUSD & Pound can trade within respective ranges of 0.62-0.64 and 1.29-1.30 in the near term. USDINR is holding well above 85.50 so far and while above it, the rise can get extended towards 86 and higher. US Durable Goods Orders data release is scheduled today.
The US Treasury yields sustain higher but are stable. The view remains bearish to see a fall back. But whether this is going to happen from here itself or after some more rise from current levels is not clear. The German yields are inching back up. Outlook is bullish to see a rise going forward. Supports can limit the downside and keep the broader uptrend intact. The 10Yr GoI has limited room on the downside from here. We can expect the yield to rise eventually going forward.
The Dow Jones looks bullish to 43300-43500. DAX is holding the range of 222000-23500. Nifty's failure to sustain above 23800 can pull the index down to 23500-23300. Nikkei lacks the strength to sustain above 38000 and is expected to exhibit a fall towards 37000. Shanghai needs a rise past 3380 to extend the rise to 3400-3450. A support near 3350 can be seen.
Brent and WTI continue to rise and may reach $74-$75 and $71-$72, respectively. Gold needs to stay above $3,000 to move higher; otherwise, it may test $2,950 before rebounding. Silver rebounded from $33.40 and could rise towards $34.50-$35.00. Copper is showing strong bullish momentum, potentially targeting $6.00-$6.50 in the medium term and $7.50-$8.50 in the long term. Natural gas remains bearish below $4.00, with a downside target of $3.80-$3.60.
Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis
The above views are based on the latest available information. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. While the views are proffered with the best of intentions, neither the author, nor the firm are liable for any losses that may occur as a result of any action based on the above. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
Gold trades near record-high, stays within a touching distance of $3,100
Gold clings to daily gains and trades near the record-high it set above $3,080 earlier in the day. Although the data from the US showed that core PCE inflation rose at a stronger pace than expected in February, it failed to boost the USD.
EUR/USD turns positive above 1.0800
The loss of momentum in the US Dollar allows some recovery in the risk-associated universe on Friday, encouraging EUR/USD to regain the 1.0800 barrier and beyond, or daily tops.
GBP/USD picks up pace and retests 1.2960
GBP/USD now capitalises on the Greenback's knee-jerk and advances to the area of daily peaks in the 1.2960-1.2970 band, helped at the same time by auspicious results from UK Retail Sales.
Donald Trump’s tariff policies set to increase market uncertainty and risk-off sentiment
US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are expected to escalate market uncertainty and risk-off sentiment, with the Kobeissi Letter’s post on X this week cautioning that while markets may view the April 2 tariffs as the "end of uncertainty," it anticipates increased volatility.
US: Trump's 'Liberation day' – What to expect?
Trump has so far enacted tariff changes that have lifted the trade-weighted average tariff rate on all US imports by around 5.5-6.0%-points. While re-rerouting of trade will decrease the effectiveness of tariffs over time, the current level is already close to the highest since the second world war.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.