Vikram Murarka
Kshitij Consultancy Services
The lower-than-expected US PPI release at 0.10% (M/M%) yesterday took the Dollar Index below 103 and Euro towards the crucial resistance at 1.10. The USDJPY and EURJPY while below 148/148.50 and 162/163 respectively, can resume their downtrend in the medium term. Pound and Aussie have risen past 1.28 and 0.66 respectively and now if sustained, can extend their rise further to 1.29/30 and 0.6650/67 respectively. USDCNY fell sharply yesterday and any break below 7.14 if seen, can make the pair vulnerable to test 7.12/10 on the downside. EURINR has surged past 92 and if sustained can test 93 before topping out. USDINR on the Offshore is trading lower on a strong Euro and a weak Dollar and we are retaining our view of the pair seeing a dip to 83.85/80 initially before attempting to rise back towards 84 or higher again in the medium term. Watch out for the US CPI release scheduled today.
The US Treasury and German yields have dipped and have some more room to continue decline in the near term keeping our bearish view intact. The US CPI data release today will be important to watch. The 10Yr GoI is still stuck inside the narrow range of 6.85-6.90/92% but the bias remains bearish while below resistance at 6.92%. The 5Yr yield too can fall from immediate resistance at 6.92%.
Dow Jones has gained positive momentum after a softer US PPI data. DAX continues to inch up. Both Indexes could target 39800-40000 and 18000-18200 before turning lower from there. Nifty has fallen sharply within the 24500-24000 range and might break on the downside and fall towards 23500 while it remains below 24500. Shanghai remains bearish for a fall towards 2825-2800.
Crude prices have fallen back and might come down further from here. Gold, Silver and Copper lack a strong follow through rise but overall view remains bullish for the near term. Natural Gas has scope to rise towards 2.4-2.5 while above 2.1-2.0.
Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis
The above views are based on the latest available information. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. While the views are proffered with the best of intentions, neither the author, nor the firm are liable for any losses that may occur as a result of any action based on the above. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays near 1.0400 in thin holiday trading
EUR/USD trades with mild losses near 1.0400 on Tuesday. The expectation that the US Federal Reserve will deliver fewer rate cuts in 2025 provides some support for the US Dollar. Trading volumes are likely to remain low heading into the Christmas break.
GBP/USD struggles to find direction, holds steady near 1.2550
GBP/USD consolidates in a range at around 1.2550 on Tuesday after closing in negative territory on Monday. The US Dollar preserves its strength and makes it difficult for the pair to gain traction as trading conditions thin out on Christmas Eve.
Gold holds above $2,600, bulls non-committed on hawkish Fed outlook
Gold trades in a narrow channel above $2,600 on Tuesday, albeit lacking strong follow-through buying. Geopolitical tensions and trade war fears lend support to the safe-haven XAU/USD, while the Fed’s hawkish shift acts as a tailwind for the USD and caps the precious metal.
IRS says crypto staking should be taxed in response to lawsuit
In a filing on Monday, the US International Revenue Service stated that the rewards gotten from staking cryptocurrencies should be taxed, responding to a lawsuit from couple Joshua and Jessica Jarrett.
2025 outlook: What is next for developed economies and currencies?
As the door closes in 2024, and while the year feels like it has passed in the blink of an eye, a lot has happened. If I had to summarise it all in four words, it would be: ‘a year of surprises’.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.