Vikram Murarka
Kshitij Consultancy Services
The Dollar Index is bullish towards 104 and the Euro is weak towards 1.08 ahead of the ECB policy meeting where markets expect a 25bps rate cut. USDJPY and EURJPY are struggling to rise and could stabilize or fall towards 146.50 and 160 respectively. The fall could be delayed in case of a rate cut by the ECB today. Aussie needs to sustain trade above 0.67 to rise back towards 0.68 or higher while Pound trades just below 1.30 and needs to move back to prevent further decline to 1.29. USDCNY and USDINR face resistance near 7.1240 and 84.12 respectively and while that hold, the pairs can attempt to dip towards 7.08/05 and 83.90 respectively in the near term. EURINR needs to bounce back from 91 to prevent a sharp fall to 90 else could be bearish for the next few sessions.
The US Treasury yields remain stable. A further fall from here can drag them down in the coming days. We will have to wait and watch. The German yields have come down below their support. While this break sustains, the yields can fall more. That will negate our earlier bullish view. The ECB meeting outcome today will need a close watch. We expect the rates to be unchanged in this meeting. The 10Yr GoI retains its range. The sideways consolidation can continue for some more time before a rise is seen.
Dow Jones has risen above 43000. While it holds above 42500/600, a rise toward 44000 can be expected. Whereas, DAX, Nifty, and Nikkei have extended the losses and broken below 19500, 25000, and 39000, failure to rise above the mentioned levels would take the indices further down to the support levels of 19200-19000 for DAX, 24800/750 for Nifty, and 38000 for Nikkei. On the other hand, Shanghai has held the support of 3200 and could move up slowly within the range of 3200-3300.
Crude prices remain lower. Brent and WTI can fall towards 71/70 and 68/67 respectively in the near term. Gold can fall within the narrow range of 2700-2640/2620 while below resistance near 2700. Silver and Copper have risen slightly, Silver can target 32.5-33.5 on the higher side while Copper remains bearish towards 4.30-4.25 in the near term. Natural Gas needs to break below 2.35 to confirm further bearishness towards 2.2-2.1.
Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis
The above views are based on the latest available information. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. While the views are proffered with the best of intentions, neither the author, nor the firm are liable for any losses that may occur as a result of any action based on the above. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD rebounds to near 1.0850, awaits Fedspeak
EUR/USD is rebounding to near 1.0850 in the early European session on Friday. China's stimulus optimism and a broad US Dollar correction help the pair recover the dovish ECB decision-induced losses. All eyes remain on the Fedspeak.
GBP/USD pares UK data-led gains below 1.3050
GBP/USD is trading below 1.3050 in European trading on Friday, reversing upbeat UK Retail Sales data-led gains. The UK data failed to alter dovish BoE expectations. The downside, however, appears limited by the US Dollar pullback. Fedspeak awaited.
Gold plants flag above fresh all-time high at $2,700 on increased prospects of global easing
Gold (XAU/USD) establishes a foothold above the $2,700 psychological level on Friday after piercing through above this level on the previous day, setting yet another fresh all-time high.
Dogecoin whale activity takes a hit, will DOGE price plummet?
Dogecoin notes a drop in the count and volume of whale transactions in the last two days. On-chain data from IntoTheBlock shows that whales have likely slowed down their activity.
Canada debates whether to supersize rate cuts
A fourth consecutive Bank of Canada rate cut is expected, but the market senses it will accelerate the move towards neutral policy rates with a 50bp step change. Inflation is finally below target and unemployment is trending higher, but the economy is still growing.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.