Kshitij Consultancy Services Team
Kshitij Consultancy Services
Good Morning!
After the higher-than-expected US Existing Home Sales data release, Dollar Index rose sharply to test 105.915 on the upside. EURUSD on the other hand is declining as expected and can test 1.0650 on the downside. Dollar-Yen and EURJPY are nearing our expected targets of 160 and 171 respectively. Watch price action closely around current levels. Aussie & Pound continue to trade within 0.6580-0.6720 and 1.26-1.28 region respectively. USDCNY has risen past 7.26 and might rise further towards 7.28 in the coming weeks while above 7.25/7.24. EURINR can trade within 89.00-89.80 region for some time. USDINR falls back below 83.60 last Friday and if the fall sustains, a dip towards 83.45/40 could be seen.
The US Treasury yields are struggling to get a strong rise. That keeps them vulnerable to fall more to test their key supports. The German yields continue to hover around their crucial support. A strong follow-through rise is needed from here to avoid a deeper fall. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are holding above their support. A rise from here can take them higher in the coming days.
Dow Jones can rise to 40000 on a strong break above 39200. DAX struggles to rise which makes it vulnerable to break it support of 18000 and fall further to 17700. Nifty has dipped again after testing an all time high but has support below current level, which if hold, can lead to a bounce back. Nikkei lacks a strong follow through rise but bias will remain bullish as long as it holds above the support at 38000. Shanghai has broken below its support and can fall further in the near term.
Crude prices have dipped slightly but our view will remain bullish as long as the crude prices sustains above their near term support. Gold and Silver have fallen back sharply as the resistance held well and might dip further towards their immediate support from here. Copper has fallen sharply towards the lower end of the range and looks vulnerable to break on the downside and fall deeper in the near term. Natural gas has recovered a bit but could face resistance at 2.90/2.95.
Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis
The above views are based on the latest available information. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. While the views are proffered with the best of intentions, neither the author, nor the firm are liable for any losses that may occur as a result of any action based on the above. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
How will US Dollar react to Fed's preferred inflation data? – LIVE
The US Dollar retreats slightly from the multi-week high it set earlier in the week as focus shifts to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation. Markets expect the monthly PCE Price Index to stay unchanged in May.
EUR/USD hovers near 1.0700 ahead of key US PCE inflation
EUR/USD is trading sideways near 1.0700 in the European session on Friday. The pair reverses the previous rebound amid resurgent US Dollar demand even as risk sentiment remains in a sweeter spot. Markets turn anxious ahead of US PCE inflation and Sunday's French elections.
GBP/USD clings to small gains near 1.2650, awaits US PCE data
GBP/USD clings to modest recovery gains slightly above 1.2650 in the European session on Friday. Traders ignore the upward revision to the UK Q1 GDP data, refraining from placing any directional bets ahead of the key US PCE inflation data.
Gold could witness volatility after release of PCE inflation data
Gold (XAU/USD) edges marginally higher, trading above $2,330 on Friday, ahead of the main economic data event for the week, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – Price Index for May.
BTC struggles around the $62,000 level
Bitcoin price faces pullback resistance at the lower band of the descending wedge around $62,000. Ethereum price finds support at $3,288, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Ripple price faces resistance at $0.500, its daily resistance level.