Vikram Murarka
Kshitij Consultancy Services
The Dollar Index tested 109.50 as expected and now if the rise continues further, can test the resistance coming around 110-111 region in the near term. Meanwhile Euro has slipped below 1.03 on weaker PMI and Dovish ECB outlook. If the fall extends, pair could be vulnerable to test 1.01-1.00 on the downside. EURINR and USDJPY can trade sideways between 89.5-88.5/88, 156-158 respectively for the near term. Pound and EURJPY has slipped below 1.24 and 162 and failure to rise back again can drag them lower to 1.22-1.20 and 160-158/57 in the coming sessions. Aussie looks stable above 0.62 but immediate upside could be capped at 0.6250-0.6300. USDCNY is closed today. USDINR can extend further towards 85.90-86.00 in the coming weeks. Watch out for the US Manufacturing ISM data release scheduled today.
The US Treasury yields remain stable. The outlook is bullish to see more rise in the coming days. The German yields are coming close to their crucial resistance. They have to breach their resistance to go up further. Else they can fall back. We will have to wait and see. The 10Yr GoI is coming down inline with our expectation and has room to fall more.
The Dow Jones continues to remain bearish and could extend the fall towards 42000-41800. DAX, on the other hand, has risen above 20000. It needs to break above 20200 to turn further bullish else can fall back to 19500. Nifty surged above 24150 but a follow-through rise would be needed to take the index higher towards 24400, or maybe higher to 24800. Nikkei is closed today. Shanghai has breached the support of 3300 and trades near 3250. While below 300, it looks bearish towards 3200-3150.
Crude prices have risen sharply due to signs of US economic strength. The prices can rise further towards 77-78 (Brent) and 74-75 (WTI) in the near term. Gold, Silver and Copper can rise towards 2700-2750, 30.5-31.0 and 4.10-4.15 in the upcoming sessions. Natural Gas looks bullish towards 3.8-4.0.
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The above views are based on the latest available information. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. While the views are proffered with the best of intentions, neither the author, nor the firm are liable for any losses that may occur as a result of any action based on the above. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
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