Morning briefing: Euro has a bullish bias towards 1.0600-1.0650

The Dollar Index needs to see a decisive break past 106.75 to head back towards 107-108. Euro has a bullish bias towards 1.0600-1.0650, while above 1.05. Since we are bullish on the Dollar Index and the Euro at the same time, one of the views can go wrong after the US CPI scheduled today or after the ECB policy meeting tomorrow and can give us further directional clarity. EURINR can remain within 88-90 for now. Aussie has slipped below 0.64 again and if the fall continues, can get extended to 0.6350-0.6300 before possibly bottoming out. The pound needs to hold above 1.27 and rise past 1.28 to head towards 1.28-1.30, else can continue to fall within its range of 1.2770-1.2450. USDCNY looks a bit uncertain for now but if the fall continues, it can extend to 7.22-7.20 in the near term. USDJPY can rise higher towards 154-155 in the coming sessions while above 150. EURJPY remains bullish towards 162-163, while above 156. USDINR tested 84.85 yesterday. It has an immediate resistance around current levels which, if held, can bring the pair back towards 84.75-84.70 else can rally towards 84.95-85.00 much faster and sooner than expected.

The US Treasury yields have risen further. Need to see if it can rise past the immediate resistance which is needed to rise more and avoid a fall back. The US CPI data release today will be important to watch. That will be key in determining whether the yields can breach the upcoming resistance or not. The German yields remain stable. Downside is limited from here. We can expect the yields to rise either from here itself or after some more dip. The 10Yr GoI remains lower. It can fall in the near-term to test its key support and then see a reversal.

The Dow Jones has come down, keeping our bearish view intact to see a decline toward 43000 initially and then down to 42000-41000. DAX has dipped too but can test support at 20200 and bounce back towards 20500/700 before the expected corrective decline can take place. Nifty has bounced from 24500. Bias is bullish to break 24700 and rise to 25000. Nikkei could be stuck within 39500-39000 for this week while resistance holds at 39500. A break below 39000 is needed for it to fall to 38500-38000. The Shanghai Composite is trading above 3400 just now but needs to sustain and move higher to prevent a decline to 3350.

Crude prices have risen slightly and look ranged between 73-71 (Brent) and 60-67 (WTI) for the near term. Metal prices also continue their uptrend and can target 2700-2750 (Gold), 33.5-34.0 (Silver) and 4.35-4.40 (Copper) respectively. Natural Gas remains weaker, but the bias is bullish towards 3.4-3.6 while above 3.1.

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