Morning briefing: Euro faces stiff resistance, upside potential limited

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index can bounce back towards 107-108 in the near term while above 105.50. Euro and EURINR have interim resistances at 1.06 and 89.50 and higher at 1.07 and 90 respectively which suggests limited upside for both the pairs. Aussie and Pound need to see a rise past 0.6550 and 1.28 to become further bullish in the coming sessions. USDCNY and USDJPY has been coming off but if the Dollar Index rises back, then both pairs may rise back towards 7.25 and 152-154 respectively. EURJPY is coming off in line with our view and can soon test 158-156, while below 164/162. USDINR can see a gradual rise towards 84.60 in the upcoming weeks with the downside limited to 84.30.

The US Treasury yields have bounced back from lows seen on Friday. Failure to sustain the rise could lead to a fall from here. Outlook is bearish. The German yields continue to fall and are keeping intact our bearish view. The yields can come down further. The 10Yr GoI has declined, breaking the range on the downside. This is contrary to our expectation to see a bullish breakout. The near-term view has turned negative, and the yield can fall more from here. Our earlier bullish view has been negated for a while now and the rise can get delayed.

The Dow Jones has come off from 45071.29 keeping our bearish outlook targeting a decline toward 43000 intact. A sustained move above 45000 would negate this view. DAX has successfully breached the 19600 mark as expected. The view is bullish towards 20000–20300. The Nifty had managed to close above 24100 but could open with a gap down on the back of a weak GDP data release on Friday. A decisive break above 24400 is required to invalidate the downside risks. Otherwise, a retest of 23800 looks possible. The Nikkei saw a low of 37958.55 before recovering to current levels. To sustain its upward momentum, the index needs to overcome interim resistance at 38500, which could pave the way for a rise toward 39500. Shanghai remains firm above 3300 and is trading near 3350. The index could extend its gains to test the resistance level of 3400.

Crude prices trade lower and can remain in a narrow range of 73-71 (Brent) and 70-67 (WTI) respectively for the near term. Gold is currently in a wait and watch scenario as a break above 2700 is needed to see a rise towards 2750-2800 or else can fall back to 2600. Silver can rise towards 32 in the near term. Copper can remain narrowly ranged between 4.2-4.05 for some time. Natural Gas has opened lower but the outlook remains bullish towards 3.6-3.8.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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