Morning briefing: Euro eyes higher ground, 1.0900 resistance in focus

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

Dollar Index below 104, can get dragged towards 103-102. The Euro needs to see a sustained rise past 1.09 to head towards 1.0950-1.1000. EURINR has dipped below 95 and can fall towards 94. Only a rise past 95 can take it towards 97. USDJPY can face rejection from anywhere between 149-151 region. EURJPY below 162 can be vulnerable to fall back towards 159 or even lower. AUDUSD is rising higher within range of 0.62-0.64. Pound if sustained above 1.29, can test 1.30 soon. USDNCY can rise towards 7.28 while above 7.2250. USDINR is trading below 87 on the NDF. Our outlook appears bullish on the USDINR but a confirmed rise past 87.35 will be needed for that. Watch out for the IN-Trade balance and US Retail Sales scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields sustain higher. But resistances are ahead which will have to be broken to rise further. Else the yields will remain vulnerable to fall back gain. The German yields sustain higher. Bullish view is intact. The yields can rise further from here. The 10Yr GoI remains stuck inside the narrow range. We will have to wait for this range breakout to get clarity on the next move.

Dow Jones, after reaching a low of 41010, has recovered above 41350; however, the outlook remains bearish for the index to 40000-39000. DAX has risen back, and a follow-through rise would negate the downside of 22000. Nifty remained ranged between 22300 and 22700 and broke out on either side to get directional clarity. Nikkei slightly cooled down after rising to our target and resistance of 37300 by rising to a high of 37326. A rise past the resistance would pave the way towards 38000. Shanghai is holding the resistance of 3380 and is likely to witness an initial fall to 3350.

Crude prices need to break above their immediate resistance levels to move further higher in the coming weeks. Gold and silver face near-term resistance and could fall back to $2,950-$2,900 and $34.0-$33.5, respectively, in the near term. Copper needs to sustain above $4.90 to confirm further bullishness towards $5.20-$5.40. Natural gas can rise towards $4.20-$4.30 while holding above its immediate support.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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