Vikram Murarka
Kshitij Consultancy Services
The Dollar Index above 108-107.50, can rise towards 109.0-109.5 in the near term while Euro, EURINR, USDJPY and GBPUSD can trade sideways between 1.0450-1.0350/1.03, 89.5-88.5/88, 156-158 and 1.2600/1.2650-1.2500 respectively for the near term. EURJPY has risen a bit and while above 162, can target 164-165 in the coming sessions. Aussie has risen above 0.62 but immediate upside could be capped at 0.6250-0.6300. USDCNY continues to hover below 7.30 but as long as it holds above 7.28/25 the view remains biased for a rise towards 7.35. USDINR needs to decline from 85.70/75 to fall towards 85.60/50 else can extend further towards 85.90-86.00 in the coming weeks.
The US Treasury and the German yields were closed yesterday on account of the New Year holiday. The Treasury yields remain bullish to see more rise. The German yields on the other hand have to breach their upcoming resistance to extend the rise and avoid falling back. The 10Yr GoI has risen back. But it has to break the immediate resistance to become bullish and negate our bearish view.
The Dow Jones and DAX can witness a fall towards 42000 and 19500. Nifty has risen a bit but lacks immediate directional clarity. A range of 23900-23450 looks possible just now. Below 23900, there could still be some chances of a fall to 23500-23000. Nikkei is closed till 03-Jan-25. Shanghai has extended the fall beyond 3350 and could test the support of 3300.
Brent and WTI can range between 75.20-73.00 and 72.20-69 respectively for the near term. Gold needs a sustained break above 2650 to confirm further bullishness towards 2700-2750 while, Silver and Copper can rise towards 30.0-30.5 and 4.08-4.10-4.15. Natural Gas can bounce back towards 3.8-4.0 while above 3.5/3.4.
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The above views are based on the latest available information. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. While the views are proffered with the best of intentions, neither the author, nor the firm are liable for any losses that may occur as a result of any action based on the above. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
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