Vikram Murarka
Kshitij Consultancy Services
Good Morning!
Dollar Index continues to trade within 102-103 while the Euro has fallen from 1.10 and could fall to 1.09-1.0870 again in the near term. EURJPY and USDJPY have declined and look bearish for the near term. USDCNY has slipped and could now be headed towards 7.12 while below 7.18. Aussie may trade within 0.6735-0.6650 while Pound has fallen within 1.28-1.27. USDRUB could test 86-85 before moving up again. EURINR could fall towards 90.50. USDINR can fall to 82.75/65 if it breaks below 82.80.
The US Treasury yields have come down further. Failure to rise from here will negate our view of seeing a rise and in turn will see the broader downtrend resuming from here itself. The German yields have dipped slightly but are likely to reverse higher again and keep intact our bullish view. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have bounced on Friday. Though a further rise from here cannot be ruled out, resistances can cap the upside and keep the broader bearish bias intact.
Dow Jones has come down, failing to break above the upper end of its sideways range. DAX looks mixed and range-bound between 16500 and 17000. Nifty can rise towards its key immediate resistance before a corrective fall can be seen. Nikkei can face rejections from 36000. Shanghai appears range bound within 2865-2905.
Crude prices could remain range bound for some more time. Gold and Silver rose sharply to test their resistance last Friday and have dipped. Outlook is bearish for both the precious metals while below 2060 and 23.80 respectively. Copper is attempting to break below its 3.75 support and looks bearish to fall further in the near term. Natural Gas looks mixed and range bound within 3.40-2.90.
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The above views are based on the latest available information. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. While the views are proffered with the best of intentions, neither the author, nor the firm are liable for any losses that may occur as a result of any action based on the above. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
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