Morning briefing: Euro can rise towards 1.0850/1.0900 in the near term

Good Morning!

The increased expectations of rate cut in Sep-24 led Dollar Index to decline and Euro to strengthen. Dollar index can continue to trade within 106.50-105/104.50 with bearish view. Euro can rise towards 1.0850/1.0900 in the near term. Dollar-Yen and EURJPY have fallen. Both have key resistance overhead which may hold and lead to a fall further in the near term. Aussie & Pound have risen well and if sustained, can head towards 0.68 and 1.28 respectively. USDCNY has declined below 7.27 and might fall further from here. EURINR has risen above 90 and a further rise to 91 looks likely to happen in the near term. USDINR can continue to trade within its range of 83.67-83.30 in the near term. Watch out for the US NFP and Unemployment data release scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields can fall further if they fail to rise from here immediately. The US jobs data release today will be important to watch. The German yields have bounced back. The bullish view is intact. The yields can rise further from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are holding above their support. A strong rise from here can take them higher and avoid the danger of falling more.

Dow Jones has scope to see a breakout on the upside of its sideways range. DAX has broken on the upside of the range and now looks bullish to target further highs. Nifty can rise towards 24500-24700. Nikkei is attempting to break above its resistance. Need to see if it able to break sustainably or falls back. Shanghai has fallen sharply below 2950 and might come down further to 2900.

Crude prices remains bullish to target their key resistance in the near term before a corrective dip can be seen. Gold, Silver and Copper looks bullish in the near term. Natural Gas can dip towards 2.1-2.0. Key focus is on the US NFP data as that could bring volatility in the market.

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