Morning briefing: Euro can remain ranged within 1.0750 – 1.0650 region

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index and Euro can remain ranged within 104.70/105-106.30/50 and 1.0750-1.0650 region for a while. The dollar-yen and EURJPY attempt to rise back towards 160 and 172 respectively. Watch price action closely around the current levels. Aussie & Pound continue to trade within 0.6580-0.6720 and 1.26-1.28 region. USDCNY is bullish towards 7.28 while above 7.26. EURINR can trade within 89.00-90/91 region for some time. USDINR needs to break below 83.40 to move towards 83.30 again while the upside could remain capped at 83.60 for the near term.

The US Treasury yields remain stable. The yields can fall from here to test their support and then rise back again. The German yields continue to hover above their crucial support. A strong follow-through rise from here is needed to negate a deeper fall. We will have to wait and watch. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are holding well above their support and are inching higher. Our view of seeing a rise in the GoI remains intact.

Dow Jones and DAX have fallen back after the hawkish comments of FED Governor Bowman where she said that they are still not at a place where it is appropriate to cut the interest rate. Although Dow Jones has fallen but it has some near term support which could pull it back. DAX seems to be ranged between 18000-18400. Nifty has risen sharply yesterday and has scope to test its key resistance ahead before a corrective fall can be seen. Nikkei has surged breaking above its resistance and looks further bullish in the near term. Shanghai to test its key support before a bounce back can happen from there.

Crude prices have fallen back contrary to our bullish outlook and might dip some more from here. Gold, Silver, Copper and Natural gas have come down as expected and look further bearish for the near term.

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